Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Broncos vs. Chiefs on Christmas Day in NFL Week 17)

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs matchup on Christmas.

Denver Broncos running back RJ Harvey is a solid prop target in Week 17. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos have a simple task at hand over the final two weeks of the regular season: Win out and get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

While it seems simple, Denver has a couple of divisional battles left to close out the regular season, starting with a Christmas Day clash with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City’s season is over, as it was eliminated from the playoffs in Week 15 and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in the process. Then in Week 16, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew also suffered a knee injury, a sign that the Chiefs should just pack it in and focus on 2026 and beyond.

Oddsmakers have set Denver as a double-digit favorite on the road in this game, but the Broncos are coming off a huge loss at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. That game dropped Denver to just 2-8 against the spread when favored this season.

So, should bettors trust the Broncos to cover as part of their Christmas plans? It’s not the safest bet, but the SI Betting team does have a ton of picks that we like for this game.

Here’s a breakdown of some of our favorites as the Broncos and Chiefs battle it out on Christmas night. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 (+100) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan
• Courtland Sutton OVER 4.5 Receptions (-150) – Peter Dewey
• R.J. Harvey Anytime Touchdown (-115) – Iain MacMillan
• Chris Oladokun OVER 151.5 Passing Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan

Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 (+100) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week: 

The Chiefs are spiraling, but I still think they have too much talent and are coached too well to lay 10.5 points against them when they're playing on their home field. Chris Oladokun also deserves some credit. He completed 68.8% of passes for 111 yards in relief for Gardner Minshew on Sunday against the Titans. If he can continue to be that efficient this week, he may have what it takes to keep this game within reach.

The Broncos' defense is an overrated unit, and there are ways to exploit them, including targeting the opposite side of the field that Patrick Surtain is defending. Teams have figured that out and utilized that strategy in recent weeks. This game will be closer than some people expect.

Courtland Sutton OVER 4.5 Receptions (-150) – Peter Dewey

The Bo Nix-Courtland Sutton connection is alive and well in Denver after a few down weeks in the middle of the season.

Sutton has five or more catches in four straight games, and he’s been targeted 38 times during that stretch, including three games in a row with at least 10 looks from Nix.

The Broncos’ No. 1 receiver has at least five receptions in nine of his 15 games this season, totaling 69 catches for 972 yards and seven scores. 

I love this matchup for Sutton, as the Broncos are going to rely heavily on him and Troy Franklin in this game after rookie Pat Bryant was injured on Sunday against Jacksonville. 

This line likely should be at 5.5, so I’ll lay the juice to get Sutton at a reception lower on Thursday night. 

R.J. Harvey Anytime Touchdown (-115) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan is taking a shot on Denver’s rookie running back RJ Harvey to find the end zone in this game, as he’s taken on a major role since J.K. Dobbins was injured: 

R.J. Harvey has played a big role in the Broncos' offense of late. Not only is he a weapon in the running game, but he's also used in the passing game. Last week, he hauled in four receptions for 71 yards and has recorded four receiving touchdowns this season. -115 odds may not be anything to write home about, but that doesn't mean there's no value on Harvey to find the end zone.

Chris Oladokun OVER 151.5 Passing Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan

Since he’s taking the Chiefs to cover, MacMillan he clearly believes in Chris Oladokun to at least move this Chiefs offense a few times on Thursday: 

Chris Oladokun put together a solid performance in relief of Gardner Minshew last week. He completed 11-of-16 passes for 111 yards. Now that he has a full week of practice, he could be poised to put together a solid performance. Remember, based on the spread, the Chiefs will likely have to play from behind, which could lead to garbage time yards through the air for Oladokun.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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