Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chargers vs. Patriots on Sunday on Wild Card Weekend)

Iain MacMillan | 6 Hours Ago

The Patriots are home favorites against the Chargers on NFL Wild Card Weekend. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

Sunday's NFL Playoff action will wrap up on Sunday night when the Los Angeles Chargers take on the New England Patriots with a berth in the Divisional Round on the line.

If you're looking to get in on some bets for this marquee matchup, you're in the right place. In this article, I'm going to break down my top three plays for Sunday night.

Chargers vs. Patriots Best Bets Tonight

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Chargers +3.5 (-110) vs. Patriots
• Chargers/Patriots OVER 46.5 (-104)
• Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)

Chargers +3.5 (-110) vs. Patriots

In this week's edition of the Road to Super Bowl 60, I wrote about why I'm taking the points with the Chargers:

The Patriots' weak schedule has been a point of contention all season long, and for good reason. Yes, their record has been fantastic, and Drake Maye is a potential MVP, but the fact that they played just three games against teams that ended with winning records and went 1-2 in those games is a troubling sign moving into the postseason.

There's something to be said for the difference between these two defenses. The Patriots have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 18th in opponent success rate. The Chargers rank 10th, fifth, and seventh in those three metrics.

The biggest weakness for the Chargers is their injured offensive line, but the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 19.0% of their opponents' dropbacks, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. If they can't pressure Herbert, the Chargers may just pull off this upset.

Chargers/Patriots OVER 46.5 (-104)

The Patriots were one of the best OVER teams in the NFL this season, going 11-6 to the OVER. That's because their high-powered offense but porous defense is a combination that's built to play in high-scoring games. Despite the Chargers being more of a defensive team, a quarterback duel between Justin Herbert and Drake Maye has all the signs of having plenty of points scored. Let's sit back and root for points in this one.

Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)

In the Wild Card edition of the Player Prop Countdown, I ranked Justin Herbert to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns as my No. 5 player prop:

I expect Justin Herbert to have a big game on Sunday night against this Patriots' secondary. New England ranks outside the top 10 in virtually every single pass defense metric, despite playing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. They've also allowed 1.5 passing touchdowns per game and have the third-worst red zone defense, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone trips against them.

It's time for Herbert to have a statement playoff win, and at +115 odds, I think it's a great bet on him to throw for 2+ touchdowns.

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