Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Cowboys vs. Commanders on Christmas Day in NFL Week 17)

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders matchup in Week 17.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is a solid prop target on Christmas. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The NFL’s Christmas Day action kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys hitting the road to play the Washington Commanders, although neither team is still alive for a playoff spot. 

Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16 when the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Commanders, and Dak Prescott and company proceeded to lose anyway to the Los Angeles Chargers. 

After upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have lost three games in a row and have fallen to 2-5 against the spread when favored this season.

That’s the spot that Dallas finds itself in for Week 17, as the Commanders have ruled out Jayden Daniels for the season and are sizable underdogs at home. Washington is just 4-11 in the 2025 campaign, a far cry from last season when it made the NFC title game.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been breaking down picks for this game, and there are several plays that we love.

I’ve compiled some of our top picks to help bettors kick off the Christmas Day action with some winners. Here’s a breakdown of each bet for Cowboys vs. Commanders. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Cowboys vs. Commanders

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders OVER 50.5 (-115) – Iain MacMillan
• Dak Prescott OVER 274.5 Passing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. Anytime TD (+110) – Ryan Gilbert
• CeeDee Lamb Longest Reception OVER 26.5 Yards (-120) – Iain MacMillan

Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders OVER 50.5 (-115) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week: 

It's hard to evaluate both teams with nothing to play for in this game, but we do know that this is a matchup between arguably the two worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 30th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play, 27th and 30th in opponent success rate, as well as 29th and 31st in opponent yards per play. They are also both in the bottom seven in scoring defense, allowing a combined 56.9 points per game.

Let's not overthink the first game on Christmas. Sit back, bet the OVER, and root for points.

Dak Prescott OVER 274.5 Passing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

The Commanders have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, ranking 27th in the league in passing yards allowed, 30th in passing touchdowns allowed and dead last in EPA/Pass.

That sets up well for Prescott, who threw for 264 yards and three scores in a blowout win over Washington earlier this season.

Dak has a real chance to lead the league in passing yards this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cowboys let him air it out in such a favorable matchup. This season, the star quarterback has hit 275 passing yards in six games, including four of his last five matchups. 

With all the struggles Washington’s secondary has had this season, this seems like a great time to bet on Prescott with a sky-high total set for this NFC East battle. 

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Anytime TD (+110) – Ryan Gilbert

The Commanders’ running back room has been in flux this season, but SI Betting’s Ryan Gilbert is buying Chris Rodriguez, who seems to have taken the lead role down the stretch of the campaign: 

I’m also taking the running back on the other side to find paydirt on Christmas. Chris Rodriguez Jr. got the majority of the snaps last week and has been used plenty in the Washington backfield all season long.

Rodriguez Jr. scored last week to give him a touchdown in four of his last six games and five of his last eight. He, too, scored a touchdown in the first meeting between these two teams.

The Cowboys allow 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, which is the second-most in the league. They’ve allowed a running back to score in three straight games and a total of 15 RB TDs this season.

CeeDee Lamb Longest Reception OVER 26.5 Yards (-120) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan is taking a shot on CeeDee Lamb to have a big game on Thursday, especially since this Washington team has struggled to limit explosive plays in 2025:

The Commanders have allowed 12 receptions this season of 40+ yards, which is the second most in the NFL. That could line up for the Cowboys' receivers, including CeeDee Lamb, to have a big game. If Lamb can be on the receiving end of one of these explosive plays, this bet will cash.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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