Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Packers vs. Bears on Saturday Night in NFL Week 16)

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears matchup on Saturday night.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed is a solid prop target on Saturday. / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A rematch between the top two teams in the NFC North is set for Saturday night, as the Green Bay Packers hit the road to take on the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams.

Week 15 caused a flip in the standings between these teams, as Chicago dismantled the Cleveland Browns to move to 10-4 while the Packers (9-4-1) lost to the Denver Broncos as road favorites. In addition to losing to Denver, the Packers also lost star pass rusher Micah Parsons for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL.

So, this matchup means a ton for Green Bay, which holds the No. 7 seed in the NFC entering Week 16. The Packers won the first meeting between these teams in Week 14, picking off Williams in the end zone to ice the game in the fourth quarter.

Chicago, despite playing a ton of close games, has answered the critics time and time again and is looking to hold on to the No. 2 seed in the conference. Since the Bears have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the No. 3-seeded Eagles, they are in a great spot to earn a top seed if they can win this game at home.

Green Bay is favored in this matchup, but these teams are both -110 to win on the moneyline. This is as close as it gets for a divisional game, so why don’t we bet on it?

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I have some of our favorite props, anytime touchdown scorers and a side for this NFC North showdown. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Packers vs. Bears

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook.

• Green Bay Packers -1.5 (+105) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan
• D’Andre Swift OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey
• Jayden Reed Anytime Touchdown (+195) – Iain MacMillan
• Caleb Williams OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+112) – Iain MacMillan

Green Bay Packers -1.5 (+105) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s backing the Packers to cover on the road: 

I may have been wrong about the Bears being as bad as I thought they were, and their underlying metrics have trended heavily in the right direction. With that being said, I still don't think they're good enough to be listed as just 1.5-point underdogs against the Packers in this spot.

If you exclude plays that resulted in turnovers, the Bears' defense ranks just 28th in the league in opponent EPA per play and 26th in opponent success rate. Chicago has managed to sport an average turnover differential of +1.4 per game, which is simply unsustainable moving forward. If they stop being on the right side of the turnover differential every game, then we're going to see some significant regression from them.

I trust the team with far better numbers up and down the board. Let's also remember that when the Packers beat the Bears two weeks ago, they averaged 6.5 yards per play while the Bears averaged just 4.6. That was a dominant performance by the Packers that didn't show up in the final box score.

D’Andre Swift OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey

This season, the Packers are one of the best run defenses in the NFL, ranking second in yards per carry allowed (3.8) and seventh in EPA/Rush. 

So, why am I taking the OVER on D’Andre Swift’s rushing prop?

Well, I think this line is far too low for the former second-round pick, especially with how committed the Bears have been to running the football this season. 

Swift has over 51.5 rushing yards in nine of his 13 appearances this season, and he picked up 63 rushing yards on just 13 carries in Week 14 against this Packers defense. In fact, after a dreadful eight-carry, 15-yard showing against Pittsburgh, Swift has been lights out the last three games:

• Week 13 vs. Philadelphia: 18 carries, 125 yards, TD
• Week 14 vs. Green Bay: 13 carries, 63 yards
• Week 15 vs. Cleveland: 18 carries, 98 yards, 2 TD

Those teams rank No. 16 (Philly), No. 7 (Green Bay) and No. 2 (Cleveland) in EPA/Rush this season. 

As long as Swift handles double-digit carries, he’s going to be a threat to clear this line, as he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry in the 2025 season.

Jayden Reed Anytime Touchdown (+195) – Iain MacMillan

If you’re looking for an anytime touchdown prop for this game, MacMillan is taking Jayden Reed at nearly 2/1: 

In his two games since returning from injury, Jayden Reed has seen 10 targets, hauling in nine of those targets for 86 yards. 

He hasn't found the end zone in those two games, but he's arguably become the Packers' primary receiver since returning, so it may be only a matter of time before he scores for the first time since Week 1 against the Detroit Lions.

Caleb Williams OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+112) – Iain MacMillan

Should bettors fade Caleb Williams in this game? MacMillan believes that there is value in taking the former No. 1 overall pick to throw an interception on Saturday: 

Amongst all quarterbacks who will start this weekend, Caleb Williams has the highest bad throw percentage, with 22.4% of his throws being considered "bad.” 

He has only thrown six interceptions this season, but he has thrown two in his last three games, including one against the Packers two weeks ago. 

I love that we can bet on him throwing another one at plus-money.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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