Road to Super Bowl 60: NFL Wild Card Week Picks for Every Game

Iain MacMillan | Jan 6, 2026

NFL Wild Card Round Picks / Smith: Michael Owens/Getty Images, Herbert: Michael Owens/Getty Images, Rodgers: Evan Bernstein/Getty Images, Lawrence: Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images

The 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets is in the books, but that doesn't mean the wagers are going to stop rolling.

The NFL Playoffs are set to begin this year, and just like the regular season, I plan on betting on every single game through Super Bowl 60. Six games this week, four games in the divisional round, two on conference championship weekend, and then one final bet for the Super Bowl. That's 13 gets to place over the next month.

Let's dive into my best bet for all six wild card games this weekend.

NFL Wild Card Round Best Bets for Every Game

Rams vs. Panthers Prediction

There's no question the Rams are the better team, but can the Panthers hang with them and keep this game somewhat competitive? I think they can. The Panthers already beat them once this season, and while the Rams looked like the better team, the Panthers were able to gain 5.8 yards per snap against this Los Angeles defense. The Rams' defense has fallen off in the second half of the season, ranking 15th in opponent EPA per play in that time frame.

There's also something to be said for the Panthers playing on their home field, where they've been significantly better this season. There's enough there to take the 10.5 points with Carolina in this spot.

Pick: Panthers +10.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Packers vs. Bears Prediction

Jordan Love will be back in the lineup for the Packers for this game, which is bad news for the Bears. Not only did Love lead the Packers to the win against the Bears in the first game, but Green Bay was well on its way to defeating the Bears again in the rematch before an injury took Love out of the game.

I've been on my soapbox all season long claiming that the Bears aren't as good as their record, so it'd be hypocritical if I were to bet on them this week. Let's be honest, their underlying metrics don't match their 11-4 record. They're 21st in net yards per play (-0.3), 16th in total DVOA, 11th in success rate, and 26th in opponent success rate.

The Packers outrank them in virtually every metric, including coming in at seventh in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.6. The Bears' main path to victory is to win the turnover battle, but if they're not able to do that, they're going to be in trouble in this game.

Pick: Packers -108 via FanDuel

Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction

I think you're going to be hard-pressed to see many people betting against Josh Allen in the playoffs this weekend, but I'm going to be one of the few people brave enough to do it. This isn't anything against Allen and the Bills' offense, but their defense leaves a ton to be desired, and I have a lot of concerns about their ability to stop any playoff-level offense.

The Bills simply can't stop the run. They rank 25th in opponent rush success rate, 31st in opponent rush EPA, and 30th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Now, they have to take on the hottest team in football.

The Jaguars outrank the Bills in DVOA, coming in at sixth compared to the Bills at eighth, and they've not only been solid on both sides of the football, but they also have a top-five ranked special teams unit, which could make all the difference in a game that's set as a coin flip.

I'll take the Jaguars to take out the Bills and serve them yet another heartbreaking playoff loss.

Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-110) via BetMGM

49ers vs. Eagles Prediction

The 49ers' defense might just be the worst unit on either side of the ball in the NFL Playoffs, which gives me a lot of concern about their ability to beat any postseason teams, especially a team that's as complete as the Eagles. The 49ers' defense ranks 27th in defensive DVOA, 24th in opponent EPA per play, 30th in opponent success rate, and 24th in opponent yards per play, giving up 5.6 yards per snap.

The Eagles had a dip in the middle of the season, but they have seemingly fixed a ton of their issues. Their defense in particular has become an elite unit, ranking third in opponent success rate and fourth in opponent EPA since Week 10.

The Eagles are peaking at the right time, and I think they're going to win and cover to keep their back-to-back dreams alive.

Pick: Eagles -4.5 (-108) via DraftKings

Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction

The Patriots' weak schedule has been a point of contention all season long, and for good reason. Yes, their record has been fantastic, and Drake Maye is a potential MVP, but the fact that they played just three games against teams that ended with winning records and went 1-2 in those games is a troubling sign moving into the postseason.

There's something to be said for the difference between these two defenses. The Patriots have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 18th in opponent success rate. The Chargers rank 10th, fifth, and seventh in those three metrics.

The biggest weakness for the Chargers is their injured offensive line, but the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 19.0% of their opponents' dropbacks, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. If they can't pressure Herbert, the Chargers may just pull off this upset.

Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-105) via BetMGM

Texans vs. Steelers Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers thrive when they're underdogs, especially at marks of over 3.5. Sure, they've been terrible at covering spreads in the playoffs in seasons past, but Aaron Rodgers adds an extra twist to this team, and getting DK Metcalf back for the postseason gives them a significant boost.

The Texans enter the postseason on a hot streak, but it's still concerning that their offense ranks just 19th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA, both below the Steelers' offense. If their offense can't find a way to put up points, they're going to struggle to win this game by margin.

Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-113) via Caesars

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!