Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Panthers vs. Buccaneers on Saturday in NFL Week 18)

The first of several major matchups in the NFL in Week 18 takes place on Saturday afternoon, as the Carolina Panthers face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a huge NFC South clash.

This game could decide the NFC South champion, but there is a scenario where the Bucs don’t get into the playoffs even if they win. If the Atlanta Falcons, who upset the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17, beat the New Orleans Saints, Carolina will win the division.

However, the Panthers would need a win on Saturday if the Falcons lose while the Bucs need a win to stay alive. So, a ton is at stake with Carolina set as a 2.5-point underdog in this matchup.

These teams met back in Week 16, and the Panthers pulled out a win as home underdogs. Carolina is now 8-5 against the spread as an underdog this season, and it’s looking to get back to the playoffs for the first time since the Cam Newton era.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I’ve decided to share some of our favorites all in one place.

Let’s dive into the odds and breakdowns for each of these plays for this Week 18 showdown.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Panthers vs. Buccaneers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Carolina Panthers Moneyline (+124) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan
Mike Evans Anytime TD (+160) – Peter Dewey
Emeka Egbuka OVER 2.5 Receptions (+128) – Peter Dewey
Rico Dowdle UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-109) – Peter Dewey

Carolina Panthers Moneyline (+124) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s betting on Carolina pulling off an upset win:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL in the second half of the season, yet the betting market continues to set them as favorites, expecting the version of them that got off to a hot start will show up. This is a team that, since Week 8, ranks 24th in EPA per play, and they rank 28th in the league in Net Yards per Play throughout the season. The Panthers have been playing much better football and outrank the Bucs in almost every metric. I'm surprised Carolina is the underdog in this spot, so I'll back the Panthers to win on the moneyline and claim the NFC South.

Mike Evans Anytime TD (+160) – Peter Dewey

Since returning from a broken collarbone, Mike Evans has been awesome for the Bucs and is the clear No. 1 option in the passing game:

Mike Evans has scored in back-to-back games (two of his three since returning from a broken collarbone), including the Week 16 matchup between these teams.

Since returning, Evans has been targeted 28 times, and he made five grabs for 31 yards and a score against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed just 19 touchdowns through the air this season, but they still rank 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Pass.

It’s clear that Evans is Baker Mayfield’s favorite target, and he returned to a pretty normal snap share in Week 17, playing 74.6 percent of the offensive plays for Tampa Bay.

I think he’s a great bet at this price to score for the third game in a row and fourth time in 2025.

Emeka Egbuka OVER 2.5 Receptions (+128) – Peter Dewey

Rookie Emeka Egbuka has fallen off in the second half of the season, but he may be undervalued with this prop set at +128 on Saturday:

It’s been a rough second half of the season for rookie Emeka Egbuka, but he has caught three or more passes in 13 of his 16 games this season.

Carolina held Egbuka to just one catch in Week 16, but I expect the Buccaneers to involve him more in this matchup.

This season, Egbuka still has 124 targets, 62 catches and 930 receiving yards, so even though his numbers have fallen off, he’s still involved in the offense. In fact, he has five or more targets in nine of his last 10 games.

At this price, Egbuka is worth a shot against a Carolina defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Pass.

Rico Dowdle UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-109) – Peter Dewey

Dowdle struggled to get much going against the Bucs back in Week 16, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he falls short of this number again on Saturday:

Carolina running back Rico Dowdle had a coming out party in the middle of the season, but he’s since regressed, averaging just 47.3 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry over his last seven matchups.

That includes a rough showing in Week 16 against the Bucs, where he carried the ball nine times for 29 yards.

Dowdle has cleared 55.5 rushing yards in just two of his last seven games, and he’s failed to crack 60 yards in all seven matchups. On top of that, Chuba Hubbard (now healthy) has started to eat into Dowdle’s snap share in recent weeks.

All of this lines up well for the UNDER, especially since the Bucs rank ninth in the NFL in EPA/Rush – even though they’re allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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