Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Texans vs. Steelers on Monday in Wild Card Round)

Breaking down the best picks and prediction for the Houston Texans-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup in the wild card round.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are underdogs on NFL Wild Card Weekend. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The final spot in the divisional round is up for grabs on Monday night, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers host the Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud.

Houston is favored on the road in this game, as it has the No. 1 defense in the NFL (by EPA/Play) and won nine games in a row to close out the regular season.

Pittsburgh needed a missed field goal by Baltimore Ravens kicker Tyler Loop to win the AFC North and make the playoffs, but Rodgers looked like his old self in that game. So, can the Steelers pull off the upset and advance in the playoffs? 

Since 2007 when Mike Tomlin took over as the Steelers head coach, Pittsburgh is an NFL-best 23-9-3 against the spread as a home underdog. Plus, after beating Baltimore in Week 18 of the regular season the Steelers are 20-15 straight up in those games.

That makes this an interesting game to bet on, even though Houston has gained a lot of steam as a potential Super Bowl contender in recent weeks. 

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for his matchup, and I’ve narrowed things down to a few of our favorites to help bettors make the most of this Monday night clash. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Steelers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-118) vs. Houston Texans – Iain MacMillan
• C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120) – Peter Dewey
• Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD (+200) – Peter Dewey
• Jaylen Warren OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-118) vs. Houston Texans – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite picks for the wild card matchups in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column where he bets on every playoff game: 

The Pittsburgh Steelers thrive when they're underdogs, especially at marks of over 3.5. Sure, they've been terrible at covering spreads in the playoffs in seasons past, but Aaron Rodgers adds an extra twist to this team, and getting DK Metcalf back for the postseason gives them a significant boost.

The Texans enter the postseason on a hot streak, but it's still concerning that their offense ranks just 19th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA, both below the Steelers' offense. If their offense can't find a way to put up points, they're going to struggle to win this game by margin.

C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120) – Peter Dewey

C.J. Stroud has only thrown four touchdown passes in four postseason games, but I think he’s a great bet at +120 to throw two against this shaky Steelers pass defense: 

Stroud has been far from a touchdown machine this season, throwing 19 scores in 14 games while posting just five games with multiple touchdown passes.

Plus, he’s only thrown four touchdown passes in four postseason starts in his career. So, why bet the OVER on Monday?

Well, the Steelers have been awful against the pass, ranking 18th in the NFL in EPA/Pass while allowing the fourth-most passing yards and eighth-most passing touchdowns (30) in the NFL this season.

Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers torched the Steelers in the second half in Week 18, and I think Stroud can attack this secondary through the air on Monday. At +120, Stroud is at least worth a look in this prop.

Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD (+200) – Peter Dewey

Kenneth Gainwell has become Aaron Rodgers’ safety blanket in the passing game, and he’s scored three times in the last five weeks: 

Kenneth Gainwell has played over 66 percent of the Steelers’ snaps in back-to-back weeks, and he’s become a focal point of the offense – especially in the passing game – over the last eight weeks.

Gainwell has 51 targets over the last eight weeks, and he found the end zone on the ground in Week 18, his third score in five games. 

The veteran running back has eight touchdowns this season, and he touched the ball 13 times in the win over Baltimore in Week 18.

I expect a similar snap share for Gainwell against this elite Houston pass rush, and he could find himself getting more goal-line looks in this playoff matchup. 

Jaylen Warren OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

The Houston defense is arguably the best in the NFL, but the Texans may be a little vulnerable on the ground against Jaylen Warren, who has cleared this line in three games in a row: 

Houston has an elite defense, but it does rank just 11th in EPA/Rush this season, allowing 4.0 yards per carry.

So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jaylen Warren have a decent game on the ground given his recent workloads in this offense.

The Steelers running back has lost passing down work to Gainwell, but he still has 12 or more carries in four straight games, picking up 64 or more rushing yards in three in a row. Overall this season, Warren has nine games with at least 52 rushing yards and just one game where he didn’t receive 10 carries.

This line is well below his season average for yards per game, and I think Warren will have a sizable role against this Houston defense.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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