Best Saquon Barkley Prop Bet vs. Giants: Bet on Eagles Running Back to Bounce-Back

Will Saquon Barkley have a big game against his former team?

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is a great prop target in Week 6. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley was virtually unstoppable in the 2024 season, leading to him winning the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.

However, Year 2 in Philadelphia hasn't gone nearly as well for the star running back -- at least through the first five weeks. Barkley is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, and he's failed to clear 50 rushing yards in each of his last three games.

Now, he has made an impact in the passing game, reeling in 17 of his 19 targets for 128 yards and a score, but Barkley's numbers are nowhere near where they were in 2024.

Will that change on Thursday night against the New York Giants?

Barkley has a revenge game against his former team -- in primetime -- in Week 6, and oddsmakers are expecting him to have a strong game with his rushing yards prop set at 86.5 at DraftKings while his anytime touchdown scorer odds sit at -150.

Based on those odds, Barkley has an implied probability of 60 percent to find the end zone on Thursday night. Plus, he has the same odds (-150) to reach 80 rushing yards in a game for just the second time in 2025.

So, should bettors expect a big game from the Eagles star?

Even though Barkley received just six carries in the Eagles' Week 5 loss to the Denver Broncos, there are a ton of reasons to believe he's in for a bounce-back showing in New York.

The Giants have given up 700 rushing yards this season (the sixth-most in the NFL) and are allowing 5.3 yards per carry (fourth-most in the NFL) through five games. Their advanced numbers against the run are awful as well, as they rank 30th out of 32 teams in EPA/Rush.

Despite all of that, I think betting on Barkley is going to come down to volume, and with Landon Dickerson (ankle) out, the Eagles are less than 100 percent on their offensive line. So, here's a look at my favorite Saquon prop for this matchup, which I shared this week in SI's best props for this matchup.

Saquon Barkley OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts (-127)

Barkley is coming off a season-low six carries in the Eagles’ loss to Denver, but I expect him to be heavily involved in the game plan in Week 6. 

Nick Sirianni may simply want to get his star running back going after such low usage in Week 5, and this is the perfect matchup to do it. Not only is Barkley facing his former team, but the Giants are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

New York has allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season (the fourth-most in the NFL) and ranks 30th in the league in EPA/Rush on defense.

That sets up well for Barkley to have a big game, but his rushing yards prop is in the mid-80s, and he only has one game with 80 or more rushing yards in 2025. 

Instead, I like Barkley’s rushing attempts, as he’s carried the ball 18, 22, 18 and 19 times before the six-carry game against Denver. This is a bounce-back spot for the Eagles star and this running game. 

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