Betting Vegas: Sharps Find Value on Bengals, Ravens in NFL Week 18

Gilberto Manzano | 2 Hours Ago

Sharps are betting on Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson against the Steelers in Week 18. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

NFL bettors aren’t finding much value in the three most meaningful games of Week 18. They’re overlooking playoff implications and focusing on the teams with nothing to play for in the final week of the regular season.  

The sharps are struggling to find reasons to place money on the teams involved in the meaningful matchups: Panthers at Buccaneers, Seahawks at 49ers and Ravens and Steelers. There was, however, some sharp action on the Ravens moneyline when the odds were -165, according to Lamarr Mitchell, the executive director of trading for MGM Resorts/BetMGM. 

The odds went as high as -200 for the Ravens after star quarterback Lamar Jackson told reporters on Thursday he’s going to play in the AFC North winner-take-all Sunday Night Football matchup.

Mitchell also mentioned he saw some sharp play on Panthers-Buccaneers under 44.5, which went down a point. That was it for sharp action on the three meaningful games. But expect the public to be all over the Ravens (-3.5) with Jackson trending in the right direction and the Steelers being forced to play without DK Metcalf due to his two-game suspension. 

As for a random thought, I wonder whether the betting line of Saints-Falcons drops a point if the stakes turn out to be higher come kick off on Sunday. Both teams are eliminated from postseason contention, but the winner could decide the NFC South if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday. Tampa Bay needs a win and an Atlanta loss to make the playoffs. As of Thursday, Atlanta was laying 3.5 points at home against New Orleans and Tampa Bay was a three-point home favorite over Carolina, which needs a win or a Falcons win to advance. 

And I’m pretty confident the NFC South will be decided between the winner of Saints-Falcons because I don’t see the Panthers handling business on Saturday. The Panthers are much improved, but they’re also 8–8 with a few ugly losses I can’t forget about. 

Carolina has easily folded in big spots, including getting blown out in the second half vs. Seattle last week. The Panthers were no match for the 49ers in a prime-time matchup in Week 12, and let’s not forget this team got swept by the Saints this season. Technically, New Orleans could beat Carolina for a third time this season if it were to eliminate its divisional rival from postseason consideration, which would be funny and fitting for this subpar division. 

But let’s get back to the action. Here are other sharp plays Mitchell noticed for the non-meaningful games: Bills-Jets under 40.5 and 39.5, Bengals -7 vs. Browns and Cowboys-Giants under 51.

Manzano’s NFL Week 18 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the trend: Buccaneers (-3) vs. Panthers

Don’t buy into the Panthers being due for a victory after alternating wins and losses since Week 7. Carolina has made it clear that it’s not ready to win pressure-filled games, the one consistency from this team this season.

Yes, the Buccaneers have lost seven of their past eight games, but their experience will pay off here. 

Enticing Bet: Saints (+3.5) at Falcons

The Saints might be the best team in the division. New Orleans has won four consecutive games with a red-hot rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough. But wide receiver Chris Olave won’t be available after a blood clot was detected in his lung. 

Moneyline Dog: Lions (+124) at Bears

I can’t believe I’m going to trust the Lions again. I don’t think any other team has burned me more than Detroit this season. But I’m still high on coach Dan Campbell and I think he’ll have his team ready to end a disappointing season on a high note. 

SuperDog: Browns (+7.5) at Bengals

After the underdogs went 3–0 on Christmas, it was another reminder that divisional games usually stay close regardless of the circumstances. Myles Garrett needs a monster game to set the single-season sack record. Expect him to do just that.

Not So Risky: Vikings (-7.5) vs. Packers

Green Bay desperately needs to heal its wounds and has nothing to play for this week after being locked into the No. 7 seed. 

And, yes, I just said divisional games usually stay close, but if the Packers rest their best players, this line might be more of a field-goal game for the Vikings.  

Stay Away: Broncos (-12.5) vs. Chargers

Now, this line is way too high for a divisional game, even with the Chargers resting their starters for the regular-season finale. Denver has the best record in the AFC, but is only 6–10 against the spread this season.

Parlay: Giants (+3.5) vs. Cowboys; Dolphins (+10.5) at Patriots; 49ers (+1.5) vs. Seahawks 

Give me all the dogs for these three divisional games. The Cowboys’ awful defense will keep the Giants in the game, just like in their Week 2 shootout. Expect a backdoor cover for Miami and it’s time to give San Francisco a lot more respect heading into the postseason. 

Favorite Fave: Ravens (-3.5) at Steelers

The Steelers blew their opportunity last week against the Browns. With Metcalf still suspended, the Ravens will take this one and look for Jackson to silence all his recent critics. 

Best Over/Under Total: Saints-Falcons (over 44.5, +102)

Shough is in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year, while Bijan Robinson has been the best playmaker in football this season. Expect plenty of points in this NFC South clash that could somehow decide the division with two teams eliminated from postseason contention. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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