Bills vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Divisional Round (Bet on Josh Allen?)

The first game of the divisional round in the NFL playoffs features Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen taking on the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos with a trip to the AFC title game on the line.

This is a revenge game for Denver, as Allen and the Bills knocked the Broncos out of the playoffs in the wild card round last season. That game was played in Buffalo, but this time it is Denver that has home field advantage.

Sean Payton’s group lost just one game at home all season, but can it hold off Allen and the Bills? Buffalo picked up an upset win over the No. 3-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and Allen was magnificent in that game, leading multiple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter.

Denver is a step up in class defensively, but Bo Nix and the Broncos offense has been shaky at times this season.

All season long, the SI Betting team has shared final score predictions for the NFL games each week, and the playoffs are no different. We’re giving out these picks as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

With this game featuring the tightest spread of the weekend, here’s where I’m leaning on Saturday.

Bills vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Bills +1.5 (-120)
Broncos -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline

Bills: -108
Broncos: -112

Total

46.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Buffalo opened up as a favorite in this matchup, but the odds have flipped in Denver’s favor since then. The Broncos lost just one game at home in the regular season, so it does make some sense that they’re slight favorites in this matchup.

DraftKings has the Broncos are small favorites on the moneyline (-112) to advance to the AFC title game, but the Bills (+650 to win the Super Bowl) are ahead of them in the latest Super Bowl odds.

This seems like a true toss up on Saturday afternoon.

Bills vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bets for the divisional round in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column, and he’s taking Denver to cover:

If you're betting on the Bills, you're betting on Josh Allen to take over the game. He has done it in the majority of their games this season, including in their first playoff game against the Jaguars, but can he do it on the road against an elite Broncos defense?

The Broncos rank fifth in defensive DVOA, eighth in opponent EPA, and first in opponent success rate. They can stop both the run and the pass, ranking first in opponent dropback success rate and second in opponent rush success rate. Not only that, but they've been dominant on the road, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +1.2 at home, compared to the Bills, who are at +0.2 on the road.

Teams have been able to run the ball all over the Bills. They're 31st in opponent rush EPA, and they give up 5.2 yards per carry, which is also the second most in the league. If Denver leans on its run game, this could be a long game for the Bills.

It’s worth noting that MacMillan bet on this game when Denver was still an underdog, but he seems to like how the Broncos profile against Buffalo.

I’m not as convinced, as the Bills have the best player in this matchup – Josh Allen – and we already saw him will his team to a win in the wild card round.

The Denver defense has been shaky at times down the stretch of this season, and I think Buffalo is now a little undervalued with the odds shifting towards Denver. This will be a close game, but I’d personally take the Bills to win it.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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