Blue Jays vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 21

The Toronto Blue Jays have dropped back-to-back games, but they are still in second place in the AL East heading into Monday’s matchup with the Houston Astros.

Houston has gotten off to a really slow start, posting one of the worst OPS marks in baseball. Entering this game, the Astros have a negative run differential and are just four in the AL West standings.

Still, oddsmakers have them favored at home with Hunter Brown on the mound. So, how should we bet on this matchup?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this battle between playoff hopefuls in the American League.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Blue Jays +1.5 (-192)
Astros -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: +114
Astros: -135

Total

7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Blue Jays vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.49 ERA)
Houston: Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Astros How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 21
Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Daikin Park
How to Watch (TV): SCHN, SN1
Blue Jays record: 12-10
Astros record: 10-11

Blue Jays vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

Hunter Brown UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)

This season, Hunter Brown has 22 strikeouts in 24.0 innings of work, but he has a tough matchup against a Toronto team that strikes out just seven times per game this season – the second-fewest in MLB.

Brown has failed to clear this prop in back-to-back starts, and he ranks in just the 58th percentile in whiff percentage and 66th percentile in strikeout percentage. I like the UNDER on this number on Monday.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting's MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why bettors should trust both starters in the early going on Monday:

Toronto starter Kevin Gausman and Houston starter Hunter Brown are both off to strong starts in the 2025 season, and I think that could lead to a low-scoring game in the early innings on Monday.

Brown has allied just four earned runs in 24.0 innings of work (1.50 ERA), posting a WHIP of just 0.83. Meanwhile, Gausman has a 2.49 ERA across 25.1 innings of work for the Jays, allowing just 15 hits across four starts.

Both of these offenses are in the bottom half of MLB in OPS, and the Astros (26th) are actually one of the worst hitting teams in the league right now.

With this first five innings total all the way up at 4.5 and the game total at 7.5, I think there’s a ton of value in taking the UNDER while both of these starters are likely in the game.

Pick: Blue Jays-Astros First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 (-154 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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