Blue Jays vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 6

The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to complete a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon, and they’ve won five games in a row to keep pace with the New York Yankees in the AL East.

Tampa Bay is 23-12 this season, just 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the top spot in the American League. Meanwhile, the Jays have struggled out of the gate, winning just 16 of their first 36 games.

After making the World Series in the 2025 season, the Jays certainly haven’t been as dominant to open 2026.

Still, oddsmakers only have them as +119 underdogs in this series finale as they look to avoid a sweep.

A pair of lefties are on the mound on Wednesday, with veteran Patrick Corbin (3.65 ERA) getting the ball against Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan. A two-time All-Star, McClanahan is coming off his best start of 2026, tossing six scoreless innings in a win over the San Francisco Giants.

Can he keep it rolling on Wednesday afternoon?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this AL East showdown.

Blue Jays vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Blue Jays +1.5 (-186)
Rays -1.5 (+153)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: +119
Rays: -143

Total

7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Blue Jays vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.65 ERA)
Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan (3-2, 3.10 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Rays How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 6
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Tropicana Field
How to Watch (TV): Sportsnet, Rays.TV
Blue Jays record: 16-20
Rays record: 23-12

Blue Jays vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

Patrick Corbin UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-157)

Even though Corbin has a decent ERA in the 2026 season, he hasn’t pitched deep into games, recording 12, 17, 15, 14 and 16 outs in his five appearances.

The Blue Jays have not had the veteran throw more than 85 pitches in a single start, and he has three outings with less than 80 pitches. That really limits his ceiling when it comes to this prop, especially against a Tampa Bay team that has won nine of 10 games and ranks fifth overall in batting average.

Corbin’s advanced numbers are shaky, he ranks in the 16th percentile in expected ERA, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s chased early from this game. Either way, I’d expect the Jays starter to pitch five or fewer innings – even in a good outing – on Wednesday afternoon.

Blue Jays vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have actually struggled against left-handed pitching in the 2026 season, ranking 16th (Tampa Bay) and 20th (Toronto) in OPS, though the Rays have an advantage over the Blue Jays in batting average against lefties, ranking 10th to the Jays’ 19th.

So, I’m going to back the superior pitcher in this game, which is undoubtedly McClanahan once you dive into the advance numbers.

Corbin has a decent ERA (3.65) this season, but he’s struggled in the past few campaigns to limit baserunners. He does not have a season with a sub-4.00 ERA since 2020, and the Blue Jays lefty has an expected ERA in the 16th percentile (5.69) this season.

He also ranks in the 14th percentile in expected batting average against, the 22nd percentile in barrel percentage and the 39th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

McClanahan has not allowed a run over his last two starts, lowering his FIP to 2.87 this season. On top of that, he ranks in the 57th percentile or better in expected ERA, expected BAA, strikeout percentage and average exit velocity against.

The Rays star hasn’t pitched deep into games, which could be an issue since Tampa Bay’s bullpen has a 4.29 ERA this season. Still, I don’t want to fade the Rays at home, where they are an impressive 13-4 in the 2026 season.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-143 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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