Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, May 18

A major American League East series opens on Monday night, as the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays in the first of four matchups between these teams this week.

New York is coming off a disappointing weekend where it blew Sunday’s finale against the New York Mets, and it has fallen three games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East standings.

Still, Toronto’s 2026 season has gotten off to a much worse start, as the Jays are four games under .500 and have a negative run differential despite winning back-to-back games over Detroit to close out the weekend.

Veteran lefty Patrick Corbin (3.93 ERA) will get the ball for Toronto on Monday against Yankees youngster Ryan Weathers (3.00 ERA). New York is just 4-4 with Weathers on the mound, but he’s allowed three or fewer runs in all but one of his starts.

So, can he lead the Yankees – who are favored on Monday – to a win to open this series?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this battle between playoff contenders in the American League.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Blue Jays +1.5 (-125)
Yankees -1.5 (+104)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: +163
Yankees: -188

Total

9 (Over -103/Under -117)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Patrick Corbin (1-1, 3.93 ERA)
New York: Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.00 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 18
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): YES Network, Sportsnet One
Blue Jays record: 21-25
Yankees record: 28-19

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Cody Bellinger to Hit a Home Run (+484)

Who doesn’t love a little long shot player prop? I shared in today’s best home run picks for SI Betting why Bellinger may break out of his slump against Toronto:

New York Yankees star Cody Bellinger has been slumping a bit as of late, hitting .239 without a home run over the last two weeks.

However, he has a great bounce-back spot ahead of him on Monday, as he’ll take on Toronto Blue Jays lefty Patrick Corbin. This season, Corbin has a 3.93 ERA, allowing just three home runs in seven appearances. But, he’s really struggled with the long ball since the start of the 2021 season, allowing 146 home runs in 164 appearances (163 starts).

Bellinger has dominated Corbin in his career, going 10-for-24 (.417), though he has yet to take him yard. This may be a buy-low spot for the Yankees outfielder, as he clearly has seen the ball well against Corbin and has an .854 OPS and two homers against lefties in 2026.

At +484, Bellinger is worth a look at home in this series opener.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have hit the UNDER in the majority of their games this season, but I think this pitching matchup actually sets up pretty well for a high-scoring game.

Corbin has a solid ERA (3.93) on the surface, but his advanced numbers tell a different story. He ranks in the eighth percentile in expected ERA (6.10) the second percentile in expected BAA (.312) and just the seventh percentile in whiff percentage.

The veteran isn’t getting a ton of swings and misses, which could be a major issue against a Yankees offense that is third in OPS and fifth in runs scored in the 2026 season.

As for Weathers, he ranks in the 43rd percentile in expected ERA (4.22), and the bullpen behind him has taken a step back, dropping all the way to a 3.60 ERA this season. The Yankees blew Sunday’s game against the Mets, and they’ve gone OVER the total in back-to-back games after a long UNDER streak was snapped with a push in the opener of their weekend series.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Yanks jump on Corbin in this one, and I’d much rather fade him than expect him to continue to overachieve where his advanced metrics have placed him in 2026.

Pick: OVER 9 (-103 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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