Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 19

Can the Jays pull off an upset with Dylan Cease on the mound?

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease is a solid prop target on May 19. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays played an exciting series opener on Monday night, with the Yanks eventually coming away with a 7-6 win after the Jays stranded runners in the ninth inning. 

Now, New York is favored at home to take Game 2 of this four-game set, and it has righty Will Warren on the mound against Toronto star Dylan Cease.

Warren has been great for New York in the 2026 season, leading it to a 7-2 record in his nine starts while posting a 3.42 ERA. Meanwhile, Cease has been a bright spot for a Toronto team that has struggled out of the gate, posting a 2.41 ERA while ranking in the 84th percentile in expected ERA. 

Toronto fell to 8-15 on the road with Monday’s loss, but can it bounce back with Cease on the mound?

I’m eyeing two plays for Tuesday’s AL showdown, including my favorite player prop of the night. 

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)
• Yankees -1.5 (+144)

Moneyline

• Blue Jays: +119
• Yankees: -143

Total

• 8.5 (Over -122/Under +101)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Toronto: Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.41 ERA)
• New York: Will Warren (5-1, 3.42 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 19
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): TBS, Sportsnet One, YES Network
• Blue Jays record: 21-26
• Yankees record: 29-19

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Dylan Cease OVER 16.5 Outs recorded (-103)

I am shocked to see this line set so low for Cease, as he’s worked seven innings in three consecutive outings and has at least 17 outs recorded in five of his nine starts in 2026. 

The Yankees have one of the better offenses in MLB, but Cease is an elite strikeout pitcher, ranking in the 96th percentile in whiff percentage. He should be able to retire a strikeout-prone Yankees lineup (23rd in K’s per game) and at least work into the sixth frame on Tuesday.

Cease has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his nine starts, which gives him a pretty solid floor when it comes to this prop. He’s also cleared this line in four straight outings and five of his last six after a few shorter games to start the season. 

This is mispriced at -103, and it’s worth noting that in both 2024 and 2025 Cease made one start against New York and threw 6.2 innings in each outing. 

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Could we see a low-scoring game on Tuesday night? In today’s MLB best bets column for SI Betting, I shared why the UNDER is the play in this AL East battle: 

On Monday, I took the OVER in the series opener between these AL East foes, but the UNDER may be the play on Tuesday night. 

Both of these teams have actually hit the UNDER in the majority of their games this season, and Toronto is just 23rd in MLB in runs scored. 

The Yankees – who have the fourth-best team ERA in MLB – have right-hander Will Warren on the mound on Tuesday, and he comes into this outing with a 3.42 ERA, allowing two or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine starts. 

Warren has an expected ERA of 3.18 (76th percentile) and an expected BAA of .227 (69th percentile) this season, so his strong start hasn’t been a fluke by any means. The Yankees are also 7-2 in Warren’s starts, allowing four or fewer runs as a team in seven of them.

On the Toronto side, righty Dylan Cease (2.41 ERA) is looking to continue his impressive start to 2026. Cease ranks in the 84th percentile in expected ERA (2.88) and the 83rd percentile in expected BAA (.213). He’s also generating a ton of swings and misses, ranking in the 96th percentile in whiff percentage and the 97th percentile in strikeout percentage. 

Cease has allowed more than three earned runs in just one outing all season long. 

So, even though these teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 of this series, that came with two lesser pitchers on the mound. I think this total is a touch too high, especially if Cease and Warren are able to work deep into this matchup. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (+101 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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