BMW Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg

Three in a row! Go for one more! Go for it…connect four!

The SI Golf betting panel stayed hot with our third straight outright. No complaining that SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan cashed a +550 ticket on Scottie Scheffler. It’s still a win, and it kept our momentum rolling as we look to close the season strong!

The SI Golf betting panel features IMac, Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Inside Sports Network Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

BK hit Michael Thorbjorsen +4200 at Rocket and I cashed the +7200 ticket on Michael Brennan at Wyndham. You can complain about IMac picking Scheffler all you want, but it was the winning pick, which is all that matters.

Now we turn our attention to the second leg of the playoffs, the BMW Championship, which is being played at Bellerive Country Club. Bellerive has hosted the U.S. Open, two PGA Championships and the 2008 BMW. It’s also undergone another renovation since it was last in the spotlight at the 2018 PGA Championship, won by Brooks Koepka.

Regardless of event, regardless of what decade it was played, the common thread of past winners at this course is elite ball striking. It’s a long course with wide fairways and large greens. But hitting it in the right spot is critical to success at this Robert Trent Jones layout. You also have to be long and accurate off the tee to set up your approach shots. It's a par 4 and the two Par 5s on the course are both over 600 yards.

Let’s get into our picks with a full breakdown on each pick below the graphic.

expert BMW betting picks. — SI Panel BMW betting picks. | Sports Illustrate

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Hideki Matsuyama (w/o Scheffler) +2000 (FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama posted a fourth-straight top-10 finish last week while gaining +1.30 strokes per round off the tee and +1.75 strokes per round with his irons. Unfortunately, he lost strokes both around and on the greens. If he can have an average week in those areas while continuing to strike the ball at an elite level, he’s going to get a win before these playoffs wrap up.

Brian Kirschner: Viktor Hovland +3000 (FanDuel)

Winner of this event in 2023, he is primed to be another repeat BMW Championship winner. Hovland showed the world what he is capable of at the 2026 Travelers, where he outdueled Scottie Scheffler. I think he has the chance to do that again. Hovland hit his irons really well last week and putted and chipped well too. He plays great on classical bent courses and I expect the same from him this week.

Brad Thomas: Sam Burns +2000 (FanDuel)

Burns is due. If he can somehow get to Sunday with a six stroke lead, this is his event to win.

Byron Lindeque: Sam Burns +2000 (FanDuel)

In his last four starts, Sam Burns has two 2nds and a 3rd. He had some really uninspiring Sundays to end up top 3 in all of them, which goes to show how well he played leading up to the Sunday Scaries. He is the second-best ball striker in the field behind Scheffler and is the best Bentgrass putter in the field. It is time for Burns to blast his way to victory in a 50-man field on a course that suits his skill set exceptionally well.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3000 (FanDuel)

I’m a parody of myself. I know this. I don’t care. Vik continues to strike the ball like a maven, gaining 3.58 strokes last week, but he also gained with the short game. He’s still frustratingly inconsistent hole-to-hole with the driver and putter, but it still feels like he’s knocking on the door. Most importantly, though, he’s gained strokes putting on bentgrass and is second in proximity from 125-150 and 150-175 yards while first from 175-200, which are crucial this week, over the last 24 rounds. Someone get the clown mask ready for me to wear.

Brian Giuffra: Ludvig Aberg +1700 (Bet365)

Aberg has been catching a lot of strays for his inability to close out wins, but there’s no doubt he is among the best ballstrikers on Tour, and ultimately, that consistency will lead to wins. He’s been Top 10 his last two events, including T7 at the St. Jude, where he gained over 6 strokes OTT during the event. He’s one of the best dri vers on Tour (sixth in total driving) and his approach numbers are Top 20 as well. This course should suit his game.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Alex Noren +6800 (DraftKings)

Alex Noren's last three starts have been finishes of T18 at the British Open, T7 at the Wyndham Championship, and a T3 finish at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. Not only was he T3 last week, but he gained +2.04 strokes on the field with his approach play, which isn't typically his strength. If he improves for the fourth straight tournament, he's going to be in contention on Sunday.

Brian Kirschner: Sepp Straka +25000 (DraftKings)

It has not been the greatest of seasons for this two-time Ryder Cupper, but he showed some life last week. Sepp gained over three strokes on approach and just couldn’t putt. I think that can flip this week. He is a very good PGA Tour player who isn’t deserving of the longest odds in the field.

Brad Thomas: Krisoffer Reitan +9000 (MGM)

The Memorial comps are insane for this golf course, and that brings me to Kristoffer Reitan, who finished T6 at Muirfield Village earlier this season. He also won the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow, another course that I like as a small comp. His game is in pretty good shape, and he gets the obvious boost on the greens as a very good bentgrass putter. I think both Muirfield Village and Quail Hollow can be used as comp courses here if you squint your eyes hard enough. There are plenty of guys in that 50/1 to 60/1 range I could make a case for, but the top of this field feels so dominant that those golfers almost feel less appealing than usual. So why not skip that range entirely and take a shot on Reitan at 90/1?

Byron Lindeque: Kristoffer Reitan +9000 (BetRivers)

When Kristoffer is on Bermuda greens, he is a write off, but as the 10th-best putter on Bentgrass, he is Reitan on my card. A bit of reach with the word play there, which summarizes his approach play too, but on the other side of his irons he is top 6 in the field off the tee. Hopefully he sees a couple fall early after giving himself ample opportunities from the fairway. With around-the-green play not imperative this week, we just need the iron play to explode for Kris, who will be blasting it off the tee and dropping bombs on the greens.

Cody Williams: Sepp Straka +25000 (FanDuel)

Given how poor his performance has felt over the last four months, I was surprised to see Sepp Straka in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, much less now at the BMW. But after losing strokes on approach in his previous five starts, Straka gained 2.48 last week at the St. Jude and would’ve had a much stronger finish if not for losing 3.19 strokes putting. Furthermore, even with the approach issues, he’s still 17th, 5th, and 5th in proximity from 125-150, 150-175, and 175-200, respectively, over the last 24 rounds. It’s a longshot for a reason, but I’m intrigued by the trend.

Brian Giuffra: Rickie Fowler +7000 (FanDuel)

Fowler is one of the few players in the field who competed at the 2018 PGA Championship here and he finished T12. While the course has undergone a renovation since then, and Fowler’s game has gone through its own evolution, there is something to it. More recently, Fowler had a run of three straight Top 20s, including a T8 at the Rocket. His approach game and putting are strong right now. He’s not so long off the tee, which hurts here, but he’s accurate and a strong performer on Par 4s, which is big on this Par 70. He's always been a good bentgrass putter and it seems this layout should suit his game.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Justin Rose +4000 (FanDuel)

Justin Rose may be starting to peak entering this week. Last week, he gained +1.28 strokes with his approach play and +0.42 strokes per round with his putter. If he can sharpen up his driving and chipping, he may be poised to get off to a hot start in Missouri.

Brian Kirschner: Matt Fitzpatrick +2500 (FanDuel)

Fitz has had one of the best seasons on the PGA Tour this year and I think that he is going to have another great week in St Louis. Fitz finished T12 last week and gained in all four major categories. He is always someone who can start fast and get out to a quick lead.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp +3300 (FanDuel)

I want Jake Knapp to be back so bad because we’re finally seeing glimpses of his game really come together. He finished T13 at the 3M Open, missed the cut at the Rocket Classic, then bounced back with a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship despite losing 2.1 strokes on the putting surface. Knapp is a fast starter, and one thing I’ve realized about his game is that while some courses fit him better than others, when his game is on, it’s on. I’m going to take a shot on him in the first round and hope we catch one of those days.

Byron Lindeque: Collin Morikawa +3300 (BetRivers)

He has been extremely inconsistent this year, but he has typically played his best golf in Round 1, gaining +1.6 on average on Thursdays, which is sixth in this field. Morikawa is a loser with the putter on Bermuda, but gains almost a stroke more per round when switching over to Bentgrass greens. He is capable of leading the field in fairways and/or greens in regulation rates, which should limit his rather lackluster around the green play. Spike on these Bentgrass greens and the ball striking should be there to help capitalize on a very friendly number given his ability.

Cody Williams: Sam Burns +2150 (DraftKings)

Burns couldn’t chase down Scottie Scheffler in a tough final round last week, but he was still comfortably on the first page of the leaderboard and keeps striking the ball at a high, high level. He’s first in SG: Approach in this field over the last 24 rounds. I don’t think that’s going away, so I’ll get a little investment in him that he gets off to a hot start this week at Bellerive.

Brian Giuffra: Jake Knapp +3300 (FanDuel)

Knapp seems to have found his footing once again. He was T7 at the St. Jude last week and gained over 8 strokes total off the tee and on approach. Ironically, it was a hot putter that led to a strong initial start to this season before a hand injury derailed things. With his elite ball striking and (typically) strong putting, Knapp is the perfect kind of player to target in the FRL market, especially on a course that rewards those strengths.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Jake Knapp Top 10 incl. ties +200 (FanDuel)

I was extremely high on Jake Knapp early in the season, but an injury derailed the middle of his 2026 campaign. He may have found his form once again, based on his T13 finish at the 3M Open and a T7 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. If you sold your stock on Knapp earlier this year, this week might be your chance to buy back in at a low price.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Cantlay Top 10 +220 (DraftKings)

We cashed on Cantlay Top 20 last week. Let’s take it up a bit and chase a top 10 out of the two-time winner of the BMW Championship this week. Cantlay’s irons have been absolutely on fire recently.

Brad Thomas: Si Woo Kim Top 20 -125 (DraftKings)

As we narrow down the field, I really don’t love betting placement markets because the diamonds in the rough are fewer and further between. But Si Woo Kim at -125 to finish inside the top 20 feels like a ton of value. Kim has finished inside the top 20 in three of his last four starts, and we’re dealing with a field of only 50 golfers. More importantly, the way he’s hitting his irons has been absolutely impeccable. He’s gained strokes on approach in every tournament since the PGA Championship. This is a golf course where you’ll need to hit absolute gems with your irons. Approach play has been one of the biggest separators the last two times we’ve seen this course. At -125, I don’t think that’s a bad price at all for Kim.

Byron Lindeque: Alex Noren Top 10 +370 ties included

While I think his outright upside is slightly capped by his lack of pop off the tee, Noren is one of the better Bentgrass putters in the field, who is also on a run of really good recent results, finishing 18th at the Open, 7th at the Wyndham and 3rd at St. Jude last week. If he can come through for us this week, at these odds, we should secure a profitable prop record on the year for this column.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns & Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 w/ ties +250 (DraftKings)

Let’s get weird. Hovland and Burns I’ve already talked about their ball-striking of late, and Tommy Lad hasn’t finished outside of the Top 14 since May. In a limited field of only 50 players, it feels like getting +250 on this might be a bit of value for us to mine, even if I would say parlay golf finishing positions with extreme caution.

Brian Giuffra: Rickie Fowler Top 20 incl. ties +104 (DraftKings)

I got too aggressive with my Top 10 pick last week, so I’m going back to the Top 20 market, which is the last time to do so this year. With only 50 players in the field, Fowler has to beat or tie half of that field. If I believe he’ll win, I have to believe he’ll contend.

Final Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -16
Brian Kirschner: -17
Brad Thomas: -18
Byron Lindeque:-19
Cody Williams: -18
Brian Giuffra: -17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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