Braves vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 5

An exciting starting pitching matchup is set for Tuesday night in MLB, as the Atlanta Braves and Bryce Elder take on the Seattle Mariners and George Kirby.

Elder has a 1.88 ERA so far this season for an Atlanta team that is rolling, holding an 8.5-game lead in the NL East. The Braves have won 25 of their first 36 games while the Mariners haven’t been nearly as good as they were last season when they made the ALCS.

Seattle is two games under .500 even though it has won six of its last 10 games. Kirby (3.00 ERA) has been a bright spot, leading the Mariners to a 5-2 record in his seven starts.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Tuesday night’s game after Seattle took the series opener on Monday.

Braves vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Braves +1.5 (-194)
Mariners -1.5 (+159)

Moneyline

Braves: +113
Mariners: -136

Total

7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Braves vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

Atlanta: Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.88 ERA)
Seattle: George Kirby (4-2, 3.00 ERA)

Braves vs. Mariners How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 5
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Park
How to Watch (TV): BravesVision, Gray Media, Mariners.TV
Braves record: 25-11
Mariners record: 17-19

Braves vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

George Kirby OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (+123)

Kirby ranks in the 83rd percentile in walk percentage this season, so I’m taking a bit of a risk with this plus-money prop on Tuesday night.

The Braves are in the bottom half of the league in walks per game, but Kirby has allowed two or more free passes in four of his seven starts. The former All-Star has also pitched pretty deep into games, reaching the sixth inning in all seven of his outings.

So, that gives him a little more time to issue a couple of free passes, which he’s done in two of his last three starts. Even if the Mariners righty pitches well, I think this line is a little mispriced considering he’s hit it in over half of his games.

Braves vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Tuesday, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column why I’m trusting both of these starters in the early innings:

The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in baseball right now, leading the league in runs scored and OPS, but I think Tuesday’s pitching matchup sets up well for the UNDER in the first five innings.

Atlanta’s Bryce Elder has a 1.88 ERA and an expected ERA of 2.98 this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all of his starts. He’s also posted four outings with one or zero runs allowed and has pitched into the sixth inning in six of his seven appearances. Now, he gets to take on a Seattle offense that is in the middle of the pack this season, ranking 19th in runs scored.

On the Mariners’ side of things, George Kirby has a 3.00 ERA and a 2.84 expected ERA in the 2026 season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts. The All-Star has also pitched deep into games, recording at least 5.2 innings in every start this season.

As good as the Atlanta offense has been, I think the total in the first five innings (4.5) is a touch too high given how successful both of these starters have been to start 2026.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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