Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Braves-Mariners, Padres-Giants, Orioles-Marlins on Tuesday)

A loaded Major League Baseball slate on Tuesday gives us plenty of betting options, and there are a ton of great starting pitchers on the mound.

Framber Valdez, Kevin Gausman, Drew Rasmussen, Cristopher Sanchez, Jacob deGrom, Shohei Ohtani, Logan Webb, George Kirby, Sandy Alcantara and Logan Webb are all on the mound, and I’m targeting a few of these pitchers to headline today’s best bets.

The Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners have an intriguing pitching matchup that could be worth a First 5 Innings play while the Miami Marlins and San Francisco Giants could be worth a look with their aces on the mound.

Let’s break down each of these plays – and their latest odds – for May 5.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Braves-Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135)
San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-126) vs. San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins Moneyline (-131) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Atlanta Braves-Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-135)

The Atlanta Braves have the best offense in baseball right now, leading the league in runs scored and OPS, but I think Tuesday’s pitching matchup sets up well for the UNDER in the first five innings.

Atlanta’s Bryce Elder has a 1.88 ERA and an expected ERA of 2.98 this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all of his starts. He’s also posted four outings with one or zero runs allowed and has pitched into the sixth inning in six of his seven appearances. Now, he gets to take on a Seattle offense that is in the middle of the pack this season, ranking 19th in runs scored.

On the Mariners’ side of things, George Kirby has a 3.00 ERA and a 2.84 expected ERA in the 2026 season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts. The All-Star has also pitched deep into games, recording at least 5.2 innings in every start this season.

As good as the Atlanta offense has been, I think the total in the first five innings (4.5) is a touch too high given how successful both of these starters have been to start 2026.

San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-126) vs. San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb got off to a slow start in the 2026 season, but he’s pitched well over his last five starts, posting a 3.27 ERA and a 3.75 FIP.

The Giants are just 1-4 in those games because of their struggling offense, but they do have the No. 2 bullpen ERA in MLB. So, if the Giants can get a lead before Webb exits, I like their chances of winning at home against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday.

San Diego has righty Walker Buehler (5.40 ERA) on the mound for Game 2 of this series, and he has some concerning advanced numbers in 2026. Buehler ranks in the 28th percentile in expected ERA (4.86) and the 17th percentile in expected batting average against.

He’s also failed to get through five innings in four of his six starts, putting a lot of pressure on the Padres bullpen.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored and the bottom five in OPS. So, I’ll gladly back Webb – the clearly better starter – to lead his team to a win on Tuesday.

Miami Marlins Moneyline (-131) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Former Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara is off to a fast start this season for the Miami Marlins, posting a 3.04 ERA and a 3.18 expected ERA across seven starts.

Miami is 4-3 when the stud right-hander is on the mound, and Alcantara has a clear advantage against the Baltimore Orioles and right-hander Chris Bassitt. This season, Bassitt has a 5.46 ERA in six starts, and his advanced numbers are extremely concerning:

5.16 expected ERA (24th percentile)
.296 expected BAA (11th percentile)
12.6% strikeout percentage (5th percentile)
21.9% chase rate (5th percentile)

The O’s are on a five-game losing streak, dropping to 6-11 on the road after getting swept by the New York Yankees in a four game set that ended on Monday night.

Meanwhile, Miami is two games over .500 at home and shockingly holds the No. 2 spot in the NL East standings.

I think Alcantara is clearly the starter to trust in this matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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