Brazil vs. Japan Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Round of 32

World Cup Round of 32 action continues on Monday with a three-game slate, starting with a showdown between Brazil and Japan. Brazil has largely flown under the radar so far in the tournament, despite going 2-1-0. Meanwhile, Japan has played some impressive soccer and is being looked at as a dangerous opponent for any team to face.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for Monday afternoon's match.

Brazil vs. Japan Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

To Advance

Brazil -320 (76.19% implied probability)
Japan +250

Moneyline

Brazil -150
Japan +420
Draw +290

Total

OVER 2.5 (+102)
UNDER 2.5 (-124)

Brazil vs. Japan How to Watch

Date: Monday, June 29
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Houston Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Fox One
Brazil record: 2-1-0
Japan record: 1-2-0

Brazil vs. Japan History and Tournament Results

These two teams have faced each other 14 times on the international stage. Brazil is 11-2-1 in those matches, but it was Japan that won the most recent, beating Brazil by a score of 3-2 in the Kirin Challenge Cup in 2025.

Brazil

Brazil began its tournament with a disappointing 1-1 draw against Morocco, but then bounced back with 3-0 wins against both Haiti and Scotland.

Japan

Japan played to a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in its first match of the tournament, but then followed it up with a 4-0 win against Tunisia. Its last match of the tournament ended in a 1-1 draw against Sweden.

Brazil vs. Japan Best Prop Bet

Ayase Ueda Anytime Goal (+390)

I'm going to take a chance on Ayase Ueda of Japan to find the back of the net. He enters the knockout stage of the tournament ranking 23rd amongst all players in the tournament in expected goals at 1.79. He has also found the back of the net twice already. If Japan scores, there's going to be a solid chance it's credited to Ueda.

Brazil vs. Japan Prediction and Best Bet

I'm going to take a chance on an upset in this spot and bet on Japan to advance to the next round at +250 odds.

I haven't been as impressed by Brazil as I expected. In fact, they're just 20th amongst all teams in the tournament in expected goal differential per 60 minutes at +0.31, despite playing two far inferior teams in Haiti and Scotland.

Japan hasn't been far better, sporting an expected goal differential of +0.03 per 60 minutes, but Japan's disciplined style of soccer could give Brazil some surprising issues in this match. Should Brazil be favored to advance? Absolutely. Should they be -320 favorites? I don't think so. Give me Japan.

Pick: Japan to Advance (+250) via FanDuel

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