Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 10

The San Diego Padres opted to keep their team intact during the trade deadline, and it has paid off so far, as they’ve won seven of their last 10 games and are just one game out of the final wild card spot in the National League.

Now, the Padres open a major series against the National League’s top team – the Milwaukee Brewers – on Monday night.

Milwaukee has the best winning percentage on the road in the 2026 season, and it’s looking to hold off both the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers for the top spot in the NL.

Logan Henderson (2.70 ERA) is set to make his 11th appearance of the 2026 season, and he’s been lights out for the Brewers since re-joining the rotation in July. He’ll take on Casey Mize, who was acquired by San Diego at the trade deadline in a deal with the Detroit Tigers.

Mize struggled in his first outing as a Padre against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing nine hits and eight runs in just 3.1 innings of work. Can he bounce back on Monday?

I’m eyeing a player prop to Mize and a pick for this game as these two teams look to solidify postseason spots over the final weeks of the regular season.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Brewers -1.5 (+154)
Padres +1.5 (-187)

Moneyline

Brewers: -115
Padres: -105

Total

7.5 (Over +101/Under -122)

Brewers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Milwaukee: Logan Henderson (6-1, 2.70 ERA)
San Diego: Casey Mize (4-7, 3.40 ERA)

Brewers vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 10
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, Brewers.TV, Padres.TV
Brewers record: 74-44
Padres record: 62-57

Brewers vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Casey Mize OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-118)

This season, Casey Mize has given up just 76 hits in 90.0 innings of work, but he’s struggled to limit opponents in recent weeks.

Since returning from the injured list in mid-June, Mize has given up five or more hits in six of his eight starts, including a nine-hit game in his first start with San Diego. While he does have a strong ERA (3.40), Mize ranks in the 60th percentile or worse in expected batting average against, average exit velocity against, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage.

Now, he takes on a Milwaukee team that has the fifth-best batting average in MLB this season.

Even if Mize pitches well, there’s a chance he allows five or more hits, as he’s done so in eight of 17 appearances in 2026.

Brewers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Milwaukee’s road record (32-20) is extremely impressive in the 2026 season, and it has thrived with Henderson on the mound, winning eight of the 10 games that he’s appeared in.

The 24-year-old ranks in the 96th percentile in MLB in expected ERA (2.62) and the 90th percentile in expected batting average against (.201). In five starts since July 1, Henderson has a 2.67 ERA and has led the Brew Crew to a 5-0 record.

So, this is a tough matchup for a San Diego offense that has flipped the script over the last month.

The Padres started the year slow, but they’re in the top 10 in MLB in runs scored, batting average and OPS over the last 30 days, which has propelled them closer to a playoff spot.

However, the Brewers are one of the best offenses in baseball overall, ranking eighth in Weighted Runs Created Plus, seventh in OPS and fifth in both runs scored and batting average.

Mize’s first start with the Padres was rough, but he’s been pretty solid in 2026, posting a 3.40 ERA and an expected ERA in the 78th percentile.

Still, I love the opportunity to get the Brewers at -115 to win this game, even with the Padres playing better as of late. San Diego still has a negative run differential in 2026, and this offense may not be as effective against a pitching staff that is No. 2 in MLB in ERA.

I’ll take the Brewers to improve upon their league-best road record on Monday night.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google