Buccaneers vs. Lions Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 7 (Back Detroit at Home)

Detroit is 17-5 at home since the start of the 2023 season.

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell has led his team to a 17-5 record at home since 2023. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two of the best teams in the NFC face off in Week 7 on Monday Night Football, as Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Detroit is coming off a tough loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in primetime in Week 6, failing to cover the spread in the process. The loss ended a four-game winning streak for the Lions, who had covered the number in all of those games as well.

Now, they take on a 5-1 Bucs team that has found a way to win all season long despite a bunch of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Mayfield has jumped to +300 to win the NFL MVP award, but can he lead the Bucs to an upset win on the road? 

Oddsmakers aren’t sold, setting Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog in this primetime matchup. 

All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing final score predictions for every NFL game as a way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s a breakdown of this matchup in Week 7. 

Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
• Lions -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Buccaneers: +205
• Lions: -250

Total

• 52.5 (Over -11/Under -108)

This game has the highest total of the week (52.5), but the Lions have remained sizable favorites with the Bucs dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. 

Tampa Bay is 5-1 straight up this season and both of these teams have been elite against the spread, going 4-2 through six games. Can Baker Mayfield pull off an upset win even with a depleted receiving corps? 

Here’s my score prediction for this Week 7 matchup. 

Buccaneers vs. Lions Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game in the NFL season – and he’s not buying the 5-1 Bucs with all the injuries they have at the moment: 

I've correctly predicted the Eagles as a team that was going to take a step back, and they've since lost two straight games, and now I'm eyeing the Buccaneers as the next team to regress. Their numbers don't match up with their 5-1 record. They're just 13th in the league in DVOA and 11th in Net Yards per Play. Those numbers point to some significant regression coming for them in the coming weeks.

Stylistically, this is an elite matchup for the Lions. Detroit ranks fifth in the NFL in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate, and now they get to face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 21st in opponent dropback EPA, 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and 24th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.0 yards per throw.

Despite the loss on Sunday night last week, I'll back the Lions to win and cover in this spot.

At some point, the injuries to Tampa Bay are likely going to catch up, and this spread has gone from 4.5 to 5.5 in favor of the Lions – even though they lost in Week 6. 

Detroit is 17-5 straight up at home since 2023, and I expect Dan Campbell’s group to score enough to hold off Baker Mayfield and the Bucs this week.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 30, Buccaneers 24

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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