Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, March 11

The No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference is on the line on Tuesday night, as the Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee currently has a one-game lead on Indiana and the Detroit Pistons in the standings, but the Bucks dropped back-to-back games over the weekend. Meanwhile, Indiana has lost three straight games, including an 18-point loss to the Chicago Bulls on Monday, to fall into a pseudo tie with the Pistons for the No. 5 spot.

Indiana has not had Tyrese Haliburton (hip) in each of its last three games (all losses), and it’s gone 0-4 without the All-Star guard in the 2024-25 campaign. After sitting out yesterday’s loss, Haliburton’s status is certainly up in the air for this matchup.

The Bucks took the first two meetings between these teams earlier this season, and oddsmakers have set them as favorites on the road on Tuesday.

Can they pull off a win and cover?

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown.

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Bucks -3.5 (-112)
Pacers +3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Bucks: -142
Pelicans: +124

Total

234.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Bucks vs. Pacers How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 11
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
How to Watch (TV): TNT
Bucks record: 36-27
Pacers record: 35-28

Bucks vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

Giannis Antetokounmpo – probable
Damian Lillard – probable
Pat Connaughton – questionable
Bobby Portis – out
Pete Nance – questionable
Chris Livingston – out

Pacers Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Bucks vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 32.5 Points (-115)

Over his last nine matchups with the Pacers – dating back to March of 2023, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant.

He’s averaging 37.9 points, 12.6 rebounds and 6.7 assists in nine games against them over that stretch, and the star forward already has a 37-point game against Indiana this season.

Overall, Giannis is averaging 30.9 points per game while shooting 60.5 percent from the field, and he should be able to take advantage of a defense that is 20th in opponent points per game and 28th in points in the paint allowed per game this season.

Giannis has at least 30 points in seven of his last nine games against Indiana.

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)

There are two reasons why I’m fading Haliburton – if he’s able to suit up – on Tuesday night.

First off, the Pacers star has struggled against the Bucks this season, putting up just 26 and 28 points, rebounds and assists in his two games against the, shooting 3-for-13 from the field in their most recent matchup.

Now, Hali has looked a lot better over the last month, but can we trust him coming off this hip injury? There’s a chance the Pacers limit his minutes, and there’s also a chance he misses this game altogether.

Haliburton has cleared 31.5 PRA in six of his last seven games, but he only has cleared it those six times in 14 games since Feb. 1 .

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Bucks are the team to back in this matchup:

The Bucks are coming off back-to-back losses over the weekend to the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers, but I’m buying them on the road against Indiana tonight.

Since Haliburton went down, the Pacers have lost two games to the Atlanta Hawks and then hit rock bottom on Monday, losing by 18 to the Chicago Bulls. Indiana has given the Bucks issues over the last two seasons, but it’s clear that this team isn’t close to the same when Haliburton sits.

Indiana is just 3-5 against the spread as a home underdog this season, and it ranks behind the Bucks in net rating for the season and over these teams’ last 10 games.

The Pacers are 0-4 in the four games that Haliburton has missed, and with his status uncertain, I’ll gladly take Milwaukee to win this game at such a short price. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard should be good to go on Tuesday, as they are both probable on the Bucks’ latest injury report.

Pick: Bucks Moneyline (-142 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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