Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 30

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in danger of being swept by the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday afternoon, but they have their ace on the mound.

Paul Skenes (2.48 ERA) has led Pittsburgh to a 4-2 record this season, and he’ll look to snap this four-game skid. The Pirates are one game over .500, but they are dead last in the NL Central despite posting a positive run differential.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 17-13 despite a minus-eight run differential so far this season. The Cardinals are set as massive underdogs against Skenes, who has not picked up a loss in a start since he was chased in the first inning by the New York Mets on Opening Day.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s divisional battle.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cardinals +1.5 (-122)
Pirates -1.5 (+102)

Moneyline

Cardinals: +189
Pirates: -232

Total

7.5 (Over +102/Under -123)

Cardinals vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

St. Louis: Hunter Dobbins (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (4-1, 2.48 ERA)

Cardinals vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 30
Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV
Cardinals record: 17-13
Pirates record: 16-15

Cardinals vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Paul Skenes UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-155)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column why Skenes is an elite prop target after some dominant showings in April:

Paul Skenes had a rough start to the season against the New York Mets on Opening Day, but he has since rebounded to be one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Skenes has a 2.48 ERA and a 2.88 FIP this season, and his advanced numbers are absolutely nuts for a player that didn’t make it out of the first inning in his season debut. Skenes ranks in the 96th percentile in expected ERA (1.93) and expected batting average against (.164).

He’s in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity against and the 91st percentile in hard-hit percentage. So, batters aren’t making great contact against the Pittsburgh Pirates ace.

I’m buying him to allow four or fewer hits in Thursday’s outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are just 20th in MLB in batting average this season. Skenes has allowed four or fewer hits in each of his starts, and he hasn’t allowed more than three hits in an outing in the month of April.

Overall, the Pirates star has a 0.72 WHIP, allowing just 14 hits in 29.0 innings of work in 2026.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Not only am I going to bet on Skenes in the prop market, but I’m trusting him to shut down this St. Louis lineup in the first five innings.

Skenes hasn’t allowed many baserunners this season, posting a 0.72 WHIP while not allowing a run in each of his last two starts.

The Cardinals aren’t a great offensive team, ranking outside the top 10 in runs scored, OPS and batting average this season. Skenes is also just a dominant starter that hasn’t allowed more than one run in a start since the beginning of April.

At plus money, this prop is worth a look, especially since Skenes is coming off seven innings of one-hit ball against Milwaukee.

Pick: Cardinals First 5 Innings UNDER 0.5 Runs (+135 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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