Cavaliers vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals is upon us!

The New York Knicks and Jalen Brunson are favored at home – where they are 4-1 this postseason – against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who won Game 7 against the Detroit Pistons on Sunday night to advance.

Cleveland has gone to Game 7 in back-to-back series, and it certainly is at a rest disadvantage in Game 1. New York swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the conference semifinals and has not played since May 10.

While that may bring a “rust” question into the picture for New York, the layoff was necessary to get OG Anunoby (hamstring) back in the lineup. Anunoby was injured in Game 2 against the Sixers, but he’s practiced in full multiple times in the leadup to Game 1.

This series features a ton of All-Stars on both sides, from Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and James Harden for Cleveland to Brunson and Towns for New York. The Cavs are underdogs in the series, but they certainly are talented enough to give the Knicks a series.

I’ll be betting on every game in this series, including two player props and a side in Game 1.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds and pick for Cavs vs. Knicks on Tuesday night.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Cavs +7.5 (-115)
Knicks -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Cavs: +215
Knicks: -265

Total

216.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cavaliers vs. Knicks How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 19
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Madison Square Garden
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Series: Tied 0-0

Cavaliers vs. Knicks Injury Reports

Cavs Injury Report

Larry Nance Jr. – questionable

Knicks Injury Report

OG Anunoby – probable

Cavaliers vs. Knicks Best NBA Prop Bets

Cavs Best NBA Prop Bet

Donovan Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (-150)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Mitchell is a solid prop target in Game 1:

Donovan Mitchell hasn’t shot the 3-ball well in the playoffs so far, hitting just 31.1 percent of his attempts, but I like this matchup for him against the Knicks.

Mitchell has made three or more shots from deep in seven of his last 10 games against New York, and the Knicks were 21st in the NBA in opponent 3s per game in the regular season. While they’ve posted the best opponent 3-point percentage in the playoffs, it’s also a small sample size (10 games).

The attempts from deep will be there for Mitchell – he’s averaging 8.5 per game in the playoffs – and the Cavs need his offense against a New York team that has been one of the best offenses in the league all season.

Mitchell has at least two made 3-pointers in 12 of his 14 games this postseason, so he’s going to at least be in the mix to clear this prop in Game 1.

Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

Jalen Brunson 8+ 1st Quarter Points (-138)

This postseason, Brunson has been great early in games, and he’s going to be a matchup problem for a Cavs team that has two guards – Harden and Donovan Mitchell – that aren’t exactly great defenders.

The Cavs will likely play Dean Wade or Max Strus on Brunson to open the game, and I think the star guard has some value in his scoring prop for the opening frame of Game 1. Brunson has eight or more points in seven of his 10 playoff games this season, and his usual rotation is to play the entire first quarter while Karl-Anthony Towns leads the offense in the start of the second quarter.

Brunson is averaging 9.8 points per game in the first quarter this postseason while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3. He’s attempting 7.8 field goals in the opening frame, giving him an extremely high floor when it comes to this market.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks Prediction and Pick

This may be the perfect storm for the Knicks in Game 1, even though they haven’t played in nine days.

New York is 26-15 against the spread when favored at home this season, and it has 34 of 45 home games overall (playoffs included).

Meanwhile, the Cavs didn’t win a road game in the playoffs until Game 5 of the second round, winning that matchup and Game 7 in Detroit to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Could there be some “rust” for the Knicks? Of course. But, the long layoff has allowed OG Anunoby to return in Game 1, which is a massive boost for New York on both sides of the court. Not only has the veteran forward shot over 60 percent from the field in the playoffs, but he’s by far the Knicks’ best all-around defensive player.

Cleveland went to seven games against a short-handed Toronto team and a Detroit team that simply didn’t have enough offense after Cade Cunningham to really compete against the Cavs. Now, it has to take on a New York team that has a plus-20 net rating in the playoffs, ranking No. 2 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating.

In the second round, the Knicks jumped all over the Philadelphia 76ers – who were on short rest after a Game 7 – in Game 1. I think this could be a similar scenario, especially since the Cavs’ offensive rating has fallen nearly nine points per 100 possessions on the road compared to at home this postseason.

Pick: Knicks -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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