Celtics vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 12

The two top teams in the odds to win the NBA Finals this season face off on Thursday night in Oklahoma City.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder will get their first look at the Boston Celtics with Jayson Tatum on Thursday, as the star forward is set to play in his fourth game of the season.

Boston is 2-1 with Tatum in action, as it lost on Tuesday night to the San Antonio Spurs after Jaylen Brown – an MVP candidate – was ejected in the second quarter.

The Thunder remain the title favorites, but they have a much tougher path in the Western Conference than Boston would have in the East at this point in the regular season. These teams could be on a collision course to meet in the NBA Finals, making this a great litmus test for both squads.

Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as favorites on Thursday, and I’m eyeing one player prop and a game prediction as two of my best bets on March 12.

Celtics vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Celtics +6.5 (-108)
Thunder -6.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Celtics: +220
Thunder: -270

Total

217.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Celtics vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 11
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Celtics record: 43-22
Thunder record: 51-15

Celtics vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Celtics Injury Report

UPDATE: Jayson Tatum has now been ruled OUT on Thursday.

Payton Pritchard – probable
Baylor Scheierman – available
Jayson Tatum – out
Derrick White – questionable
Nikola Vucevic – out
John Tonje – out

Thunder Injury Report

Jalen Williams – out
Nikola Topic – out
Branden Carlson – out
Isaiah Hartenstein – out
Thomas Sorber – out

Celtics vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Celtics Best NBA Prop Bet

Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-136)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Tatum is worth a look against this tough OKC defense:

Even though Tatum is questionable for Thursday’s matchup, he’s worth a look in the prop market if he does play.

The Celtics star is averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists in three games so far this season, playing right around 27 minutes per night. He’s shooting just 39.3 percent from the field and 29.0 percent from 3, but Tatum hasn’t shied away from getting his shots up.

He has taken at least 16 field goal attempts and eight or more 3-point attempts in every game this season, including a 14 3-point attempt game against the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday.

Tatum has made three, two and four shots from beyond the arc, and I love this prop for him given his usage from deep.

Oklahoma City has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA, but it has struggled to defend the 3-ball in the 2025-26 season. The Thunder rank 27th in opponent 3s made per game and 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage.

Tatum’s props still have a little discount since he’s on a minutes restriction, but he’s shown he’s still going to be heavily involved when he’s on the floor. I think he’s a steal at this number, as his 3-point percentage is eventually going to come up from 29.0 percent.

For his career, Tatum is a 36.9 percent shooter from deep.

Celtics vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Boston is the best UNDER team in the NBA this season, hitting it in 42 of 65 games. While the Thunder have hit the OVER in the majority of their games (34 of 66), I think this could be a low-scoring matchup on Thursday night.

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive rating, and Boston really slows games down, ranking dead last in pace. So, it wouldn’t be shocking to see these teams thrive on the defensive end in the half court, as they rank No. 1 (Boston) and No. 2 (OKC) in opponent points per game, combining to allow around 215 points per night.

The C’s also are a little banged up heading into this game, and one of Tatum or White sitting out would be a huge blow to the Boston offense.

I don’t really love either side in this game, as I believe OKC has the edge, but it may struggle on the boards with Isaiah Hartenstein out. Still, this is the healthiest the Thunder have been in quite some time.

So, let’s trust the defenses to make this a low-scoring battle between Finals contenders.

Pick: UNDER 217.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.