Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 18

Iain MacMillan | 4 Hours Ago

The Broncos are home favorites against the Chargers in Week 18. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

There was a chance the Week 18 game between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers would be for the AFC West title, but the Chargers weren't able to get past the Houston Texans in Week 17, which means this divisional season finale doesn't quite have the juice it could've.

As a result, Jim Harbaugh has announced that Justin Herbert will be sidelined for the game, resting him to make sure he's fresh for the playoffs. The Broncos will plan on playing their starters for at least a portion of this game as they need to win to make sure they lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Week 18 matchup.

Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Chargers +11.5 (-110)
• Broncos -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Chargers +570
• Broncos -820

Total

• OVER 36.5 (-115)
• UNDER 36.5 (-105)

Chargers vs. Broncos How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 4
• Game Time: 4:25 pm ET
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Chargers Record: 11-4
• Broncos Record: 6-9

Chargers vs. Broncos Betting Trends

• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
• The UNDER is 5-2 in the Chargers' last seven games
• Chargers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games vs. Broncos
• Chargers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC West opponents
• The OVER is 4-1 in the Broncos' last five games
• Broncos are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 home games vs. Chargers
• Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as favorites

Chargers vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Chargers Injury Report

• Kimani Vidal, RB - Questionable
• Benjamin St-Juste, CB - Questionable
• Jamaree Salyer, G - Questionable
• RJ Mickens, S - Questionable
• Derius Davis WR - Questionable

Broncos Injury Report

• Dre Greenlaw, LB - Questionable
• Pat Bryant, WR - Questionable
• Nate Adkins, TE - Questionable
• Luke Wattenberg, C - IR
• Karene Reid, LB - IR-R

Chargers vs. Broncos Key Player to Watch

• Bo Nix, QB - Denver Broncos

People questioned whether or not Bo Nix was going to take a step forward this season, and while that may still be a debate, he's done enough to lead the Broncos to a 12-4 record. He has thrown for 236.9 yards per game, completing 63.5% of his passes, and recording 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He threw for just 153 yards against the Chargers back in Week 3.

Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why I'm making the brave bet and taking the points with the Chargers:

The Los Angeles Chargers still have something to play for, but they've decided to rest Justin Herbert in their season finale. Even with that being the case, while I don't think the Broncos are a fraudulent team as I did earlier in the season, I still think the betting market is too high on them. They're seventh in the NFL in DVOA, which is right around where I rank them as well. That's not enough for them to be favorites of more than a touchdown against a fellow postseason team.

Teams have found success running the football against the Broncos at times this season as they rank 13th in opponent rush EPA, which fits in well with what the Chargers' game plan will be. The Los Angeles defense also doesn't get the credit it deserves. It now ranks sixth in opponent EPA per play on the season, above the Broncos, who come in at 10th. That's enough for me to take the points with the Chargers.

Pick: Chargers +11.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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