Chargers vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction for Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 14

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will face-off in the Week 14 edition of Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs have escaped with wins against inferior opponents in recent weeks, but now they have to face a tough divisional opponent on Sunday night. Despite that, the betting market still evaluates the Chiefs of being favorites of over a field goal.

Let's take a look at the latest odds and then I'll dive into my final score prediction.

Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Chargers +4 (-110)
Chiefs -4 (-110)

Moneyline

Chargers +180
Chiefs -218

Total

OVER 43 (-110)
UNDER 43 (-110)

The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites but has since moved down half a point to Chiefs -4. The total for this game has also decreased half a point down to 43.0 from 43.5.

Chargers vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why I'm taking the Chargers as my upset of the week:

It's time for us to call out the Chiefs for what they are; Frauds. If you take away previous seasons and just focus on the 2024 campaign, they are one of the worst 11-1 teams in NFL history and have not played nearly as well as their record indicates. I was willing to forgive poor performance early in the season but needing last-second plays to go in their favor to beat the likes of the Panthers and Raiders is enough for me to finally lose faith in this team.

Let's take a look at where they rank in key metrics:

Net Yards per Play: 19th (-0.1)
EPA per play: 9th
Opponent EPA per play: 15th
Red Zone offense: 24th (52.08%)
Red Zone defense: 10th (51.28%)
Average scoring margin: 11th (+4.5)

The Chargers outrank them in every one of the above metrics except for EPA per Play (16th) yet they're this big of underdogs? I don't buy it.

Finally, the key to beating the Chiefs is stopping them on third down, which is where their offense thrives. The Chargers rank second in third down defense with opponents converting for a first down just 33.33% of the time. They're also second in opponent EPA and fifth in opponent success rate on third down, making them a perfect fit to take down the defending champs.

If I'm going to predict the final score, I'm also going to have a take on the total. Despite the Chargers being 8-4 to the UNDER, I lean toward the OVER cashing in this one. The Chiefs' defense has had a ton of issues lately, including their secondary. Now they need to face Justin Herbert of the Chargers which could be bad news for them.

The Chargers win in a relatively high-scoring affair.

Final Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 24

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!