Chicago Bears Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Bears Won't Live Up to Expectations)

The Chicago Bears enjoyed a strong 2025 season. Caleb Williams took a significant step forward in his development, Ben Johnson looked like the coach they were hoping he'd be, and the team went 11-6 to win the NFC North and then beat their rival, the Green Bay Packers, in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they fell short in overtime in the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams, but they should take another step forward this year, right?

Not so fast. If the betting market is correct, the Bears might be one of the biggest regression candidates for the 2026 NFL season. Let's dive into their projected win total for the upcoming campaign.

2026 Chicago Bears Projected Win Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 9.5 Wins (+100)
UNDER 9.5 Wins (-120)

The Bears' win total for the 2026 season is set at 9.5, with the UNDER juiced to -120. That means there's an implied probability of 54,55% that they'll finish at 9-8 or worse.

A lot of things went well for the Bears last season that I don't think they'll be able to repeat. Sure, there is skill to winning the turnover battle, but an average turnover margin of +0.9 per game, which was the best in the NFL by a significant amount, is going to be extremely difficult to replicate in back-to-back years.

I'm also not convinced their roster is any better than it was last season, losing DJ Moore at wide receiver and their starting center, Drew Dalman, who decided to retire at 27. This year, they have to play against the seventh-most difficult schedule in the league based on their opponent's projected win totals.

Williams looked great in big spots last season, but his overall numbers were less than promising. He finished 20th in the league in adjusted EPA per play, which is one spot below Baker Mayfield and one spot above Michael Penix Jr. He was even worse in completion percentage of expected at -3.5%, which was only better than Michael Penix Jr. amongst quarterbacks who played at least 320 snaps.

The Bears are my top regression candidate for the 2026 season, so I'll bet the UNDER on their win total of 9.5.

Pick: UNDER 9.5 Wins (-120) via DraftKings

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