Chiefs vs. Bills Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 9 (Who Wins AFC Showdown?)

The marquee matchup on Sunday in Week 9 features two AFC contenders in the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

Josh Allen (second in the odds to win MVP) and the Bills are coming off a huge win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 (40-9), and they’re looking to keep the momentum going at home against Kansas City.

However, the Chiefs are now 5-3 after a dominant win on Monday Night Football against the Washington Commanders, and they’ve won five of their last six games after starting the season at 0-2.

Patrick Mahomes (the MVP favorite) has looked unstoppable with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy in the lineup, as the Chiefs have outscored their opponents 59-7 since Rice returned in Week 7.

Oddsmakers have set Kansas City as a road favorite in this matchup, but can Allen and the Bills get revenge for all the playoff losses to Mahomes and company?

All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing final score predictions for each NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

Here’s a breakdown of my score prediction for Chiefs vs. Bills on Sunday afternoon.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Chiefs -2.5 (-105)
Bills +2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Chiefs: -130
Bills: +110

Total

52.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The odds for this game have shifted a bit since the Chiefs opened up as 1.5-point favorites earlier this week.

Kansas City, after blowing out Washington Monday, is now favored by 2.5 points on the road. In his career against Allen, Mahomes is 5-4, but he’s lost four straight regular season meetings. In the playoffs, Mahomes is 4-0 against Allen.

If you’re looking to bet on this matchup, make sure to take advantage of the latest DraftKings Missouri promo code!

Here’s a breakdown of the final score prediction for this Week 9 showdown.

Chiefs vs. Bills Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he’s backing the Chiefs to win and cover in this matchup in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week:

The Bills' offense remains one of the best in the NFL, but their defense has struggled. They rank just 13th in opponent EPA per play and 26th in defensive DVOA. Bills fans should be scared of this year's version of the Chiefs, which has been far better by almost every metric than they were when they went 15-2 last season. Their offense is better than it's been in years, including ranking fifth in DVOA and fourth in EPA per play, but they are also better than the Bills defensively.

The Chiefs are a step above the Bills at this point in this season. I think they win and cover in the one-point spread in this spot.

This spread has moved quite a bit since MacMillan made his picks on Monday, but I still lean with the Chiefs and their newfound success on offense with Rashee Rice back in action.

Kansas City also ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense while the Bills are just 13th. After Buffalo struggled at home against New England, I think it’s in a tough spot against a surging Chiefs team that has dominated the Bills in high-pressure games in the playoffs.

While this is a regular-season matchup, it could end up going a long way to deciding the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs should win an exciting one.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 27

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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