Chiefs vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 11 (Bet on Kansas City)

A massive AFC West rivalry matchup takes place in Week 11, as Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos look to extend their winning streak to eight games on Sunday against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Denver holds the top spot in the division at the moment, but it has a tough schedule to close out the season with games against Kansas City (twice), the Los Angeles Chargers and the Green Bay Packers.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming out of their bye week, where they have thrived under Andy Reid, as they try to get back into the top seven in the AFC. At 5-4, Kansas City is currently outside of the playoff field in the AFC, holding the No. 8 seed.

Denver beat the Chiefs late in the 2024 season to secure a spot in the playoffs, but the Chiefs had sat their starters in that game. That won’t be the case this time around, and oddsmakers have the Chiefs favored on the road in Week 11.

Even though the Broncos are on a lengthy winning streak, they haven’t done it in dominant fashion, beating the Las Vegas Raiders by just three points in Week 10 on Thursday night.

Can the Broncos pick up a win before their bye week and remain in first in the division?

All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing our final score predictions for every single NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on a spread or total bet.

Here’s a look at my prediction for this AFC West battle in Week 11.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
Broncos +3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Chiefs: -205
Broncos: +170

Total

43.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

There hasn't been much line movement in this game, as the Chiefs opened up as road favorites coming out of their bye week.

In his career out of a bye, Andy Reid is 22-4, including a 9-3 mark in 12 games with the Chiefs.

Denver has been a tough team to bet on this season, as the Broncos are just 4-5-1 against the spread and failed to cover against the Las Vegas Raiders as major favorites in Week 10.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bets for every game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s backing the Chiefs to cover on the road:

The Denver Broncos may just be the fraudulent team in the NFL at this point in the season. Their defense is truly elite, but their offense is downright atrocious, ranking 19th in offensive DVOA, 18th in EPA, 28th in success rate, and 19th in yards per play, averaging 5.3 yards per snap. Bo Nix may not be the answer at quarterback. He's 25th in EPA+CPOE composite, which is behind the likes of Carson Wentz, Spencer Rattle, and Caleb Williams.

Meanwhile, this is a great spot to buy into the Chiefs. Andy Reid has historically been extremely good off a BYE week, and while their record this season may not be extremely impressive, their metrics have been far better than they were last year. They rank fifth in overall DVOA and third in EPA per play. I'm surprised they aren't bigger favorites in this spot.

Denver’s defense has been able to keep it in games all season long, making up for the struggles of Nix. I’m not sure that’ll be the case against Mahomes, especially with Pat Surtain II (pec) dealing with an injury.

The Chiefs have dominated out of the bye in Reid’s coaching career, and I agree with MacMillan that this is a spot to buy low on Mahomes and company with playoff seeding on the line in the coming weeks.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Broncos 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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