Chiefs vs. Browns Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 15 (Will Kansas City Finally Cover the Spread?)

The Chiefs are 12-1 on the season but just 5-8 against the spread, including failing to cover the spread in seven-straight games. Kansas City fans and bettors will hope they break that streak in Week 15 when they head to Cleveland to take on the Browns.

The Browns have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they still have plenty of fight left in them behind quarterback, Jameis Winston.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for the game and then I'll predict the final score.

Chiefs vs. Browns, Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Chiefs -4 (-112)
Browns +4 (-108)

Moneyline

Chiefs -112
Browns +170

Total

44 (Over -110/Under -110)

We have seen the market shift significantly toward the Browns in this matchup. The Chiefs opened as 6.5-point favorites but by the end of the day Monday, the line had moved 2.5 points down to Chiefs -4. The total in the game has increased half a point from 43.5 to 44.0.

Chiefs vs. Browns Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why we should expect more of the same in a game involving the Chiefs:

The Chiefs have shown they will find ways to win games, but they simply can't cover a spread, especially as big favorites. It makes sense when you consider how much worse they are from a metrics standpoint than their 12-1 record indicates. They rank 20th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.2, which is worse than the likes of the Titans and the same mark as the Miami Dolphins.

Cleveland has a better Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.2) than the Chiefs do over those same three games (-0.8), yet the Browns are set as significant underdogs.

Look for the Winston to Jeudy connection to get going in this game. The Chiefs rank 21st in opponent dropback EPA and 20th in opponent dropback success rate this season.

I'll take the Browns to cover the spread to cause the Chiefs to move to 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.

When it comes to the total, I'm going to back the UNDER. The Chiefs' offense has struggled to move the ball at times and they're 25th in red zone efficiency, meaning most of their long drives end in field goals instead of touchdowns. I'll take them to win, Browns to cover, and for the total to stay UNDER.

Final score prediction: Chiefs 21, Browns 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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