College Football Week 12 Best Bets (Bet on Louisville to Win and Cover vs. Clemson)

Week 12 of the college football season has already begun with a handful of MACtion matchups, but now it's time to sink our teeth into the meat of this weekend's action.

If you're looking for a few bets for Week 12, you're in the right spot. I have one bet for Friday night and then two more for Saturday's slate of games, including my favorite upset pick of the week. Let's dive into them.

College Football Week 12 Best Bets

Louisville -2.5 (-110) vs. Clemson via Caesars
Oklahoma +185 vs. Alabama via BetMGM
Boise State vs. San Diego State UNDER 40.5 (-110) via Caesars

Clemson vs. Louisville Prediction

Clemson is still riding on brand name value in the betting market, but let's call it like it is, this isn't a good football team. The Tigers are just 68th in net adjusted EPA per play, while the Louisville Cardinals rank 25th in that metric. It's also worth noting both teams are pass-first team, but it's Louisville that does a much better job defending the pass, allowing just 6.0 yards per throw, which is the 11th best mark in the country. I'll back Louisville as a slight favorite on Friday night.

Pick: Louisville -2.5 (-110)

Oklahoma vs. Alabama Prediction

In this week's edition of my upset picks article, I wrote about why I'm backing Oklahoma to upset Alabama:

This is a matchup between, in my opinion, an underrated Oklahoma team and an overrated Alabama team. The Sooners rank third in the country in net success rate, while Alabama comes in at 27th. The Crimson Tide have done better in the turnover margin, which has been something Oklahoma has struggled with, but when it comes down to strictly moving the ball down the field and keeping their opponents from doing so, there's an argument to be made that the Sooners are the better team.

Pick: Oklahoma +185

Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction

San Diego State is an UNDER bettors dream. Ranking third in opponent adjusted EPA per play and 103rd in adjusted per play on offense. They're also outside the top 60 in yards per play, but sixth in opponent yards per play, keeping opponents to just 4.1 yards per rush. Boise State, while not as exaggerated, is in the same boat, with its offense significantly better than its defense. The Broncos are 25th in opponent EPA per play but 47th in offensive EPA per play.

All of those signs point to this being a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 40.5 (-110)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!