Commanders vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Trends for NFL Preseason Week 1

The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots will kick off their 2025 preseason action on Friday night in Foxborough.

This matchup is one of three in the NFL on Friday night, and oddsmakers have the Patriots set as favorites.

Since it’s the first preseason game, bettors shouldn't expect starters on either side to play a ton, and it’s worth noting that Dan Quinn’s teams are notorious for struggling in the preseason, going 7-17 straight up.

Meanwhile, Mike Vrabel has his first preseason stint as New England’s head coach, and he’s looking to lead his team to a strong start.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, trends to watch, and my prediction for this Week 1 preseason matchup.

Commanders vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Commanders +3 (-110)
Patriots -3 (-110)

Moneyline

Commanders: +130
Patriots: -155

Total

34.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Commanders vs. Patriots How to Watch

Date: Friday, Aug. 8
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Patriots Preseason Network / WBZ
Commanders record: 0-0
Patriots record: 0-0

Commanders vs. Patriots Betting Trends

Commanders head coach Dan Quinn is 7-17 straight up and 7-16-1 against the spread in the preseason.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is 7-7 straight up and 5-7-2 against the spread in the preseason.

Commanders vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

Betting on preseason games is extremely tricky since teams won't be playing their best players the entire time, but there is a trend that I can’t look past in this game.

Teams with Dan Quinn as the head coach have won just seven of 24 preseason games, and they usually fail to cover the spread (7-16-1) in those games as well.

Both of these teams have competent backup quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota for Washington and Josh Dobbs for New England), which makes this a pretty even matchup, no matter how these head coaches want to split reps.

I lean with the Pats to win at home, especially with Vrabel posting a .500 record as a head coach in the preseason.

Pick: Patriots Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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