Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, Odds: Expect Plenty of Runs in Wednesday's Series Finale

The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have split the first two games of their early-week series, and now Chicago is a small road favorite in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon.

These teams are both well over .500 to open the 2026 campaign, though they’ve done it in different ways. The Padres have won a bunch of close games (plus-9 run differential) while the Cubs have a plus-34 run differential and one of the best offenses in Major League Baseball.

These teams have combined for 16 and 11 runs in two games this week, which isn’t a great sign for a Padres team that is 13th in runs scored and 21st in OPS in the 2026 campaign.

On Wednesday, Jameson Taillon (4.55 ERA) gets the ball for the Cubs against Padres righty Matt Waldron, who has struggled in two starts, allowing 12 runs. Can he turn things around in this series finale?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Wednesday’s contest.

Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cubs -1.5 (+141)
Padres +1.5 (-171)

Moneyline

Cubs: -115
Padres: -105

Total

9 (Over +100/Under -120)

Cubs vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Chicago: Jameson Taillon (1-1, 4.55 ERA)
San Diego: Matt Waldron (0-1, 12.46 ERA)

Cubs vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, April 29
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): Marquee Sports Network/Padres.TV
Cubs record: 18-12
Padres record: 19-10

Cubs vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+133)

This season, Crow-Armstrong is hitting just .241 with a .648 OPS, but he’s starting to turn things around as of late, hitting .304 over the last week and .273 over the last two weeks.

With his speed, PCA is a threat to pick up an extra-base hit just about any time he puts the ball in play, and he should be able to against Waldron. The Padres righty ranks in the 27th percentile in expected BAA, allowing 16 hits in 8.2 innings of work.

Crow-Armstrong is significantly better against right-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .271 with 55 extra-base hits. I expect him to build on that in this matchup.

Cubs vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

In today’s MLB Best Bets column for SI Betting, I shared why I’m fading both starters in this series finale:

The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have played a high-scoring series to open this week, combining for 16 runs on Monday and 11 runs on Tuesday heading into a rubber match in Game 3 on Wednesday afternoon.

Chicago is a slight favorite on the road with Jameson Taillon (4.55 ERA) toeing the rubber, but I’m looking to the total for my best bet.

Matt Waldron (12.46 ERA) is on the mound for his third outing of the season, and the Padres have allowed eight runs in both of his starts, with Waldron giving up six of them. The knuckleballer ranks in just the 33rd percentile in expected ERA, the 27th percentile in expected batting average against and he’s struggled to miss bats, ranking in the fourth percentile in whiff percentage.

Meanwhile, Taillon hasn’t been all that better, giving up four or more runs in three of his five starts. He sits in the 37th percentile in expected ERA and the 20th percentile in barrel percentage.

So, both of these offenses should thrive in the early innings.

Chicago is one of the best OVER teams in MLB this season, ranking third in runs scored and fourth in OPS while hitting the OVER in 19 of 30 games. The Padres are 13th in runs scored heading into this game, and they’ve scored 12 runs in two games in this series.

I’ll bet on another high-scoring game after San Diego combined for 18 runs in Waldron’s last outing.

Pick: OVER 9 (+100 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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