Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Marlins-Dodgers, Cubs-Padres, Rays-Guardians)

Who doesn’t love a little afternoon baseball to break up the week?

There are a handful of afternoon starts on Wednesday, April 29, and I’m looking to bet on a few of those games in today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers.

On Tuesday, I targeted a couple of great pitching matchups, culminating in a 2-for-3 day with the NRFI hitting in the Los Angeles Angels-Chicago White Sox matchup and the First 5 Innings UNDER cashing in the New York Yankees-Texas Rangers clash.

So, why not stay hot during Wednesday’s loaded slate?

There are a ton of ways to bet on baseball, and I’m targeting an upset, a total and the Los Angeles Dodgers-Miami Marlins matchup to headline today’s best bets column.

Baseball betting is extremely exciting because there are so many ways to wager on a game without having to take a full-game moneyline, run line or spread.

Let’s check out the odds and analysis behind each of my plays on Wednesday, April 29.

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, April 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+102) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Miami Marlins-Los Angeles Dodgers First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-120)
Chicago Cubs-San Diego Padres OVER 9 (-108)

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+102) vs. Cleveland Guardians

The Tampa Bay Rays just keep on winning, and they’re looking to pull off a sweep of the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday afternoon.

Tampa Bay picked up a 1-0 win on Tuesday, the team’s sixth win in a row to move it to 18-11 in the 2026 season. The Rays have slipped out of the top 10 in the league in runs scored and OPS in this series since they’ve scored just four runs, but their pitching continues to improve with their season ERA lowering to 4.13.

On Wednesday, Tampa Bay has a pretty big advantage on the mound with Drew Rasmussen set to start against Cleveland’s Gavin Williams.

Rasmussen has a 2.45 ERA this season, allowing just 15 hits, seven earned runs and four walks in 25.2 innings of work. Tampa Bay is 3-2 in his starts, and the righty has some impressive advanced numbers as well. His expected ERA sits at 2.65 (88th percentile) and he ranks in the 96th percentile in walk percentage, the 73rd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 77th percentile in expected batting average against.

The same can’t be said for Williams, even though the Guardians righty has a 3.28 ERA this season. Williams’ expected ERA sits at 4.11, even though he’s in the 82nd percentile in expected batting average against. Hitters are making a lot of hard contact against Williams, as he ranks in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity against, the fourth percentile in barrel percentage and the 19th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

Toronto tagged Williams for seven hits and six runs in his last outing, yet the Guardians still won the game. I don’t think Cleveland's offense will fare as well on Wednesday, especially since it has scored just two total runs in this series.

The Rays are a solid underdog bet as they aim to win a seventh game in a row.

Miami Marlins-Los Angeles Dodgers First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-120)

Two elite starters take the mound in the series finale between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins, as Tyler Glasnow faces Sandy Alcantara.

Glasnow has been lights out for the Dodgers in the 2026 season, posting a 2.45 ERA in five starts, allowing two or fewer runs in four of those outings. The Dodgers are 5-0 when he’s on the mound, and Glasnow has some impressive advanced numbers:

2.17 Expected ERA (95th percentile)
.183 Expected BAA (92nd percentile)
31.7% K Percentage (91st percentile)
29.6% Whiff Percentage (77th percentile)
5.8% Walk Percentage (87th percentile)

Glasnow is coming off eight innings of one-hit ball in a win over the San Francisco Giants, so I love him as one half of this First 5 Innings UNDER bet on Wednesday.

The other half is Alcantara, who has bounced back so far after a poor 2025 season. The former Cy Young winner has a 3.05 ERA and ranks in the 76th percentile in expected ERA (3.11) through six starts.

While Alcantara did allow seven runs in a start against Detroit, he has given up three or fewer runs in every other outing in 2026. The Dodgers are massive favorites at home, and they’ll likely handle a Marlins team that is just 16th in MLB in runs scored this season.

Still, my favorite bet is trusting both of these starters, especially since these teams have combined for nine and three runs in the first two games of this series.

Chicago Cubs-San Diego Padres OVER 9 (-108)

The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have played a high-scoring series to open this week, combining for 16 runs on Monday and 11 runs on Tuesday heading into a rubber match in Game 3 on Wednesday afternoon.

Chicago is a slight favorite on the road with Jameson Taillon (4.55 ERA) toeing the rubber, but I’m looking to the total for my best bet.

Matt Waldron (12.46 ERA) is on the mound for his third outing of the season, and the Padres have allowed eight runs in both of his starts, with Waldron giving up six of them. The knuckleballer ranks in just the 33rd percentile in expected ERA, the 27th percentile in expected batting average against and he’s struggled to miss bats, ranking in the fourth percentile in whiff percentage.

Meanwhile, Taillon hasn’t been all that better, giving up four or more runs in three of his five starts. He sits in the 37th percentile in expected ERA and the 20th percentile in barrel percentage.

So, both of these offenses should thrive in the early innings.

Chicago is one of the best OVER teams in MLB this season, ranking third in runs scored and fourth in OPS while hitting the OVER in 19 of 30 games. The Padres are 13th in runs scored heading into this game, and they’ve scored 12 runs in two games in this series.

I’ll bet on another high-scoring game after San Diego combined for 18 runs in Waldron’s last outing.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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