Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 16

The Chicago Cubs handed the San Diego Padres their fourth loss of the season on Tuesday night, winning 2-1, and they’re aiming to take the rubber match in this series on Wednesday night.

Chicago has lefty Matthew Boyd on the mound against one of San Diego’s offseason acquisitions – Nick Pivetta – in what should be a pretty good pitching matchup. Both starters have an ERA south of 2.00 in the 2025 campaign.

Oddsmakers have the Padres favored at home, but the Cubs’ offense has impressed early on in 2025. Can they keep this game close, or pull off the upset on Wednesday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this National League battle.

Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Cubs -1.5 (+170)
Padres +1.5 (-205)

Moneyline

Cubs: +105
Padres: -125

Total

7.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Cubs vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Chicago: Matthew Boyd (1-1, 1.59 ERA)
San Diego: Nick Pivetta (2-1, 1.59 ERA)

Cubs vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, April 16
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): SDPA, MARQ
Cubs record: 12-8
Padres record: 14-4

Cubs vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Nick Pivetta OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-130)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s Best MLB Prop Bets column – Painting Corners – why Nick Pivetta is a fade candidate in this matchup:

San Diego Padres righty Nick Pivetta is off to a fast start this season, posting a 1.59 ERA across three outings.

However, I think he’s a pitcher to fade in the prop market on Wednesday against a Chicago Cubs team that leads Major League Baseball in walks this season.

The Cubs have already walked a whopping 89 times in 2025, and Pivetta has been prone to the free pass this season and in his career. He’s walked at least three batters in two of his three starts this season, and he averages 3.3 walks per nine innings for his career.

With this prop line set at 1.5, I think Pivetta is an ideal fade candidate – even if he pitches well overall – on Wednesday afternoon.

Cubs vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

These starters actually faced off back on April 5, with Boyd and the Cubs escaping with a 7-1 win after Pivetta allowed three runs and six hits in just three innings of work.

While both of these starters are off to strong starts in 2025, neither has been that dominant in their respective careers. Boyd has a career 4.79 ERA while Pivetta’s career ERA sits at 4.71.

I think this game could be a spot to take the OVER with the total down at 7.5. These teams rank fourth (Chicago) and fifth San Diego) in OPS this season, and no team in baseball has scored more runs than the Cubs.

Even though Boyd has pitched well in 2025, the Cubs have scored eight or more combined runs in two of his outings. The same can be said for Pivetta in San Diego.

After a low-scoring affair on Tuesday, I wouldn't be shocked to see these offenses bounce back in the series finale.

Pick: OVER 7.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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