Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Byron Buxton, Gunnar Henderson Headline Predictions)

Thursday’s Major League Baseball action features just eight games, including several matchups with a first pitch before 5 p.m. EST.

Fewer games makes it a little tougher to find value in the home run market, but I’ve narrowed things down to three plays for the day’s action.

Betting on home runs is a fun way to stay engaged in the 162-game marathon that is the MLB season, but the entire SI Betting team preaches the importance of responsible betting, especially on long shot props like these.

Minnesota Twins star Byron Buxton headlines Thursday’s action, as he’s homered 20 times in the 2026 campaign, including in three of his last four games.

Without further ado, here’s a look at the odds and analysis for each of these home run plays on June 11.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, June 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+269)

Buxton has been red hot at the plate, going deep in three of his last four games and both games in this series to push his home run total to 20.

The star center fielder has a .357 batting average and a 1.438 OPS over the last week, and he’s dominated against right-handed pitching, homering 18 times.

Now, he takes on Detroit’s Keider Montero, who has given up eight home runs this season, including eight since May 1.

Buxton has fared well against Montero in his career, going 3-for-6 with two doubles, a home run and a 1.833 OPS. The Twins star should stay hot in this afternoon matchup.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+398)

Baltimore Orioles star Gunnard Henderson is hitting just .220 this season, but he’s homered 13 times.

The former All-Star has not homered over the last two weeks, but he has fared well against Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo, homering once against him in three at-bats.

Woo has a 3.74 ERA this season, allowing seven home runs in 13 starts. He ranks in just the 21st percentile in ground-ball percentage, which could be a good sign for Henderson as he tries to lift the ball out of the park.

At nearly 4/1, the Orioles star is worth a look in a shortened slate.

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+415)

Arizona Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll has been hot as of late, hitting three home runs over the last week (six games), posting a 1.137 OPS in the process.

Now, he takes on the Miami Marlins and opener Tyler Phillips. Miami has a solid bullpen ERA (3.58) in the 2026 season, but using a bunch of arms could bode well for Carroll, who has 11 home runs in 2026.

Carroll has more homers against right-handed pitching (nine), but he’s hitting an insane .410 against lefties. So, the D-Backs star is pretty matchup proof this season.

He may be undervalued at this price given his recent hot stretch.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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