Denver Broncos Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Broncos Will Regress After Overperforming in 2025)

The Denver Broncos enjoyed a dream season in 2025, which lasted all the way until Sean Payton returned to the press conference podium after the thrilling 33-30 overtime win against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, when he announced that Bo Nix would miss the AFC Championship Game with an ankle injury.

With Nix back healthy, the Broncos are hoping that last year wasn't a fluke and that they'll be one of the best teams in the AFC through the Nix/Payton era. Unfortunately, the betting market doesn't think that'll be the case. The odds indicate some significant regression from the Broncos in 2026.

Let's dive into it.

2026 Denver Broncos Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 9.5 (-115)
UNDER 9.5 (-105)

The projected win total for the Broncos is set at 9.5, which means there's only a 53.49% implied probability that the Broncos will go 10-7 or better. Even if they go 10-7, that's four fewer wins than they had a season ago.

Every year, there is a team in the NFL that had a breakout season the year before, which raises expectations, and then the following year they regress to being a middling team. Last year's example of that team was the Washington Commanders, who had a rookie Jayden Daniels in 2024 and ended up winning almost every one-score game they were in, along with sporting unsustainable third and fourth-down conversion rates. When those things didn't go their way in 2025, they regressed significantly.

There are plenty of signs that point towards this year's version of the team being the Broncos.

In my 2026 NFL betting preview article, 32 Bets for 32 Teams, I broke down why I'm betting the UNDER on the Broncos' win total:

The Denver Broncos had the best record in the NFL in one-score games last season at 11-2, a record that's certainly going to be almost impossible to repeat in 2026. They still have a great defense and arguably the best offensive line in the league, but Bo Nix ranked just 18th in the NFL in adjusted EPA per play, which is a concern heading into this season. There's no getting around the fact that the Broncos will play a much tougher schedule this season while still being in one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. I envision regression incoming for Denver.

Pick: UNDER 9.5 Wins (-105) via DraftKings

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