Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, April 30

A rubber match takes place in the National League on Thursday afternoon, as the Arizona Diamondbacks rebounded to even their early-week series with the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night.

Now, Milwaukee is set as a small favorite at home in this series finale with Brandon Woodruff on the mound against Arizona’s Michael Soroka.

The 2026 season has been a good one for Soroka, who has led the D-Backs to a 4-1 record in his five starts while posting a 2.60 ERA. His advanced numbers are a little shaky (4.62 expected ERA, .264 expected BAA), but he has not picked up a loss or allowed more than four runs in a single outing.

Can he help the D-Backs pull off an upset against the Brewers?

Milwaukee is in fourth in a loaded NL Central, and the team’s plus-26 run differential is a positive sign for its chances or remaining in the playoff mix this season.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this series finale on Thursday afternoon.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

D-Backs -1.5 (+165)
Brewers +1.5 (-201)

Moneyline

D-Backs: +104
Brewers: -126

Total

7.5 (Over -115/Under-105)

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Michael Soroka (4-0, 2.60 ERA)
Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 3.77 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 30
Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
Venue: American Family Field
How to Watch (TV): Brewers.TV/DBACKS.TV
D-Backs record: 16-13
Brewers record: 15-14

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+297)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Marte is a threat to hit his sixth homer of the season:

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte already has five homers in the 2026 season, and all five of his long balls have come against right-handed pitching.

I’m buying Marte at +297 against Milwaukee Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff, who has given up four home runs in five starts. Woodruff allowed nine home runs in 12 outings in 2025, and he ranks in just the 13th percentile in ground-ball percentage this season.

Marte has fared well against Woodruff in his career, going 4-for-12 with two doubles and an OPS of .929. Even though this is a shorter price, Marte is still worth a bet on Thursday.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Both Woodruff and Soroka have made five starts in the 2026 season, and they both have four outings with three or fewer runs allowed.

With this total down at 7.5 for the full game, I don’t mind taking the UNDER 4.5 runs in the first five frames with this starting pitching matchup.

Woodruff has dealt with a bunch of injuries in recent seasons, but he had a 3.20 ERA last season and holds a 3.13 ERA for his entire career. The veteran right-hander currently ranks in the 78th percentile in MLB in expected ERA (3.05) through his five starts.

Soroka’s expected ERA is much worse – which I mentioned earlier in this piece – but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five outings while posting a 1.15 WHIP. So, I don’t mind backing him early on, especially since most of his outings have been fewer than six frames.

These teams are ninth and 12th in runs scored this season, but I think the bullpens are a little more vulnerable than these starters. Arizona has a 4.93 bullpen ERA in 2026 while the Brewers are in the top half of the league at 3.94.

I’ll trust Soroka and Woodruff to have a relatively clean first five innings on Thursday afternoon.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-160 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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