Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Juan Soto, Ketel Marte, George Springer)

A smaller Major League Baseball slate on Thursday picked up two games over the last 24 hours, as four teams (Baltimore vs. Houston and San Francisco vs. Philadelphia) will play doubleheaders today.

That has added some extra intrigue – and a few more home run props to consider – to the action on April 30.

It’s never easy to predict home runs in MLB, but using matchup data, past pitcher performance and more, the SI Betting team narrows down our favorite plays each day to help fans stay engaged in the long 162-game season.

After falling short on Wednesday with Aaron Judge, Elly De La Cruz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all failing to go deep, I’m eyeing Ketel Marte and Juan Soto to lead the bounce-back train with a ton of afternoon games set to take place.

Let’s close out the month strong with a long shot winner! Here’s a look at my favorite home run prop targets on Thursday.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, April 30

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+313)

New York Mets superstar Juan Soto has homered in back-to-back games against one of his former teams – the Washington Nationals – and he’s a great target to leave the yard again on Thursday afternoon.

Soto has moved to +313 to hit a home run on Thursday, as the Mets take on Miles Mikolas (8.49 ERA) and a shaky Washington bullpen. The Nationals’ pen has been an auto fade in the 2026 season, posting a 5.01 ERA while allowing 24 home runs.

Meanwhile, Mikolas has been rocked in several starts, allowing seven home runs in six starts. He’s also struggled against Soto in his career.

The Mets star is 8-for-21 with a home run, double and a .952 OPS against Mikolas, and he should stay hot after posting a .471 batting average against right-handed pitching so far this season.

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+486)

Toronto Blue Jays star George Springer has gotten off to a slow start in the 2026 season, hitting just .196 with two home runs, but I think he’s a little undervalued to go deep on Thursday night.

Springer has thrived against Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober in his career, going 6-for-17 (.353) with a double, three homers and an OPS of 1.294. Springer missed time with an injury before returning to the lineup on Wednesday against Boston, so his season-long numbers aren’t as concerning as they’d be if he was in the lineup since Opening Day.

Ober has allowed three homers in the 2026 season, and he’s coming off a 2025 campaign where he gave up 30 homers in 27 starts. The righty has given up 106 home runs in 121 appearances in his career, making him an easy pitcher to fade on Thursday night.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+297)

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte already has five homers in the 2026 season, and all five of his long balls have come against right-handed pitching.

I’m buying Marte at +297 against Milwaukee Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff, who has given up four home runs in five starts. Woodruff allowed nine home runs in 12 outings in 2025, and he ranks in just the 13th percentile in ground-ball percentage this season.

Marte has fared well against Woodruff in his career, going 4-for-12 with two doubles and an OPS of .929. Even though this is a shorter price, Marte is still worth a bet on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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