Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds for May 2 (Bet This Jesus Luzardo Prop)

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks both enter Friday’s action at 17-14 in the 2025 season, and oddsmakers are expecting the Phillies to come away with the win, favoring them at home.

This game features an interesting pitching matchup between Phillies youngster Jesus Luzardo (1.73 ERA) and Diamondbacks veteran Merril Kelly (4.41 ERA).

Arizona has a top-five offense in MLB this season, but can it knock off the Phils at home?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this NL clash.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155)
Phillies -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline

Diamondbacks: +130
Phillies: -155

Total

9.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.41 ERA)
Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 1.73 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 2
Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, ARID
D-Backs record: 17-14
Phillies record: 17-14

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Jesus Luzardo UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)

Earlier on Friday, I shared why Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo is a solid prop target against Arizona:

The Diamondbacks are fourth in MLB in OPS this season, but I’m not sold on them getting to Jesus Luzardo, who has a 1.73 ERA and 1.99 FIP in the 2025 season.

Luzardo has given up just seven earned runs in six starts, and he has just one outing all season where he’s given up more than two earned runs. The lefty has also done a great job limiting baserunners, posting a 1.07 WHIP.

While the D-Backs offense can score with the best of them, I have to back Luzardo to stay hot since he’s been lights out in just about every start this season.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

As I mentioned in the prop play earlier, I think Luzardo can keep this D-Backs offense in check, as he ranks in the 84th percentile in expected ERA, per Statcast and the 80th percentile or higher in several other key advanced categories.

Meanwhile, Kelly’s season-long numbers are inflated by a really poor second outing when he allowed nine runs in just 3.2 innings of work.

Outside of that start, Kelly has not allowed more than two earned runs in a single start. So, these starting pitchers could have this game at a relatively low number heading into the late innings.

Both of these bullpens have ERAs that are in the bottom 10 in MLB, so there is some risk involved, but this total feels a little too high if both starters limit the damage.

Pick: UNDER 9.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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