Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 29

A crucial matchup in the NL wild card race is set for Wednesday afternoon, as the Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Arizona holds a one-game lead over Pittsburgh for the final wild card spot in the NL, and these teams split the first two games of this series after Arizona picked up a 8-7 win on Tuesday night.

Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego and Miami are all within two games of the final wild card spot, which should set up an exciting trade deadline and finish to the 2026 regular season.

On Wednesday, the Pirates have right-hander Jared Jones (3.72 ERA) on the mound, and he has pitched pretty well after missing the start of the 2026 season recovering from an elbow injury he suffered in 2025.

The D-Backs will counter with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (2.64 ERA), who has led Arizona to a 16-5 record in 21 outings despite some shaky advanced numbers. Can the D-Backs extend their lead over the Pirates in the wild card on Wednesday?

Oddsmakers have Pittsburgh set as a slight favorite at home, where it is just two games over .500 in the 2026 season.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

D-Backs +1.5 (-193)
Pirates -1.5 (+158)

Moneyline

D-Backs: +107
Pirates: -129

Total

8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Eduardo Rodriguez (9-3, 2.64 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Jared Jones (2-1, 3.72 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 29
Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): DBACKS.TV, MLB.TV
Diamondbacks record: 56-52
Pirates record: 55-53

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Esmerlyn Valdez to Hit a Home Run (+361)

Pirates rookie Esmerlyn Valdez has been a major surprise in the 2026 season, as he’s hitting .285 with 14 home runs and a 1.062 OPS across 39 games (35 starts). The rookie had a scare after undergoing imaging on his hand on Monday, but he was back in the lineup on Tuesday.

Valdez has crushed left-handed pitching this season, hitting .333 with a shocking 1.367 OPS. He’s homered seven times against southpaws in just 45 at-bats, so I don’t mind taking him against Rodriguez, who has given up 13 homers this season.

E-Rod has allowed a homer in three of his four starts this month, and his advanced numbers are pretty awful this season (18th percentile in expected BAA, 24th percentile in barrel percentage).

Valdez has shown some serious power against lefties, with 11 of his 15 hits against them going for extra bases. He’s a terrific home run target for those looking to cash a long shot prop.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

The D-Backs have thrived in Rodriguez’s starts this season, but regression is coming at some point for the veteran left-hander.

E-Rod has allowed at least two runs in each of his starts this month, including a five-run performance in 2.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s also given up seven hits in each of his last three outings.

Overall, the advanced numbers for the D-Backs lefty are shaky. He has an expected ERA of 5.00 (20th percentile) and an expected batting average against of .265 (18th percentile). He also ranks in just the 11th percentile in whiff percentage and the 12th percentile in strikeout percentage in 2026.

So, I’m not going to just blindly bet the D-Backs based on their record with Rodriguez on the bump.

As for the Pirates, Jones has been working himself back into the rotation, and he’s put together a really solid month of July, allowing one or fewer runs in four straight starts. He has a 1.29 ERA and a 1.64 FIP this month. In the 2026 season, he ranks in the 85th percentile in both expected ERA and expected BAA.

So, I actually think the Pirates have the advantage on the mound in the early innings, and Pittsburgh remains one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking third in OPS and fourth in Weighted Runs Created Plus.

Now, I don’t trust the Pirates’ bullpen (4.41 ERA this season), so I’m simply going to bet on them to be leading through five frames when Jones should still be in the game.

Pick: Pirates First 5 Innings Moneyline (-160 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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