Dolphins vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 18 (Patriots Should Roll)

The Patriots are double-digit favorites in Week 18.

The New England Patriots and quarterback Drake Maye are favored on Sunday. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots have their sights set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they’ll need some help to get it done.

The Patriots are massive favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, but they need a win and a Denver Broncos loss to clinch the top spot in the conference. Denver is favored at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. 

Maye has a real shot at winning the MVP this season, and he led the Pats to a blowout win over the New York Jets in Week 17. But, bettors shouldn't expect the Dolphins to roll over in this matchup.

Miami is 7-9 this season, and it upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 with rookie Quinn Ewers under center. The seventh-round pick is looking for the second win of his career in Week 18, but the Patriots are a much tougher opponent for this Miami squad. 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been predicting final scores for every NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

Here’s where I’m leaning for this AFC East showdown on Sunday afternoon. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dolphins +10.5 (-110)
• Patriots -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dolphins: +440
• Patriots: -600

Total

• 45.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

This line has jumped from 10.5 to 11.5 and back to 10.5, and it appears the Patriots will remain heavy favorites with a chance to get the No. 1 seed in Week 18. 

New England is 3-2-1 against the spread when favored at home this season. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week: 

With the Los Angeles Chargers resting Justin Herbert, the Patriots' path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC is going to be nearly impossible, as they'd need the Broncos to lose as massive favorites to a Herbert-less Chargers. That could lead Mike Vrabel to be convinced to rest his starters for at least a portion of their game against the Dolphins.

Even if they don't rest starters, I still like Miami getting 11 points in this spot. The Dolphins' season didn't go as planned, but they don't belong to the group of truly bad teams this season. They're 21st in both net yards per play and total DVOA, meaning they certainly have the capability to keep the score within single digits.

Let's also not forget the Patriots have some defensive issues, ranking just 25th in defensive DVOA. There's not enough there to convince me to lay 11 points on the Patriots.

MacMillan makes some great points as in Week 18, incentive to win is key, but the Patriots still have it. New England could be the No. 1 seed if it wins and Denver loses, so I’d expect the Patriots to go all out at least early on in this one.

Drake Maye and company torched the New York Jets in Week 17, and that could be the case against rookie Quinn Ewers and a Miami team that has nothing to play – although it has closed the season strong – in Week 18. 

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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