Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 18

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

The Patriots are home favorites against the Dolphins in NFL Week 18 action. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The New England Patriots will put a cherry on top of their impressive season when they host the Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 18 action. The No. 1 seed is still up for grabs for the Patriots, but they'd need the Chargers to upset the Broncos for them to have a chance.

With that in mind, we'll see how long the starters remain in the game for New England. Let's take a look at the current odds for the game, as well as my best bet.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Dolphins +10.5 (-110)
• Patriots -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dolphins +490
• Patriots -670

Total

• OVER 45.5 (-115)
• UNDER 45.5 (-105)

Dolphins vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 4
• Game Time: 4:25 pm ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Dolphins Record: 7-9
• Patriots Record: 13-3

Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Trends

• The UNDER is 6-3 in the Dolphins' last nine games
• Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Patriots
• The OVER is 8-1 in the Dolphins' last nine games vs. AFC East opponents
• Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games
• The OVER is 8-2 in the Patriots' last 10 games
• Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC East opponents

Dolphins vs. Patriots Injury Reports

Dolphins Injury Report

• Minkah Fitzpatrick, S - Questionable
• Aaron Brewer, C - Questionable
• K.J. Britt, LB - Questionable
• Jordyn Brooks, LB - Questionable
• Chop Robinson, LB - Questionable

Patriots Injury Report

• Jared Wilson, G - Questionable
• Khyiris Tonga, DT - Questionable
• Robert Spillane, LB - Questionable
• Harold Landry III, LB - Questionable
• Kayshon Boutte, WR - Questionable

Dolphins vs. Patriots Key Player to Watch

• Drake Maye, QB - New England Patriots

Since the Patriots last played, Drake Maye has gone from being an underdog to being named NFL MVP to being a significant favorite. Matthew Stafford's three-interception performance against the Falcons on Monday Night Football caused a significant shift in the odds, and now Maye will enter Week 18 at -340 to win the award in just his second season in the league. A strong performance against the Dolphins will lock up the award for him.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why I'm taking the points with the Dolphins in this game:

With the Los Angeles Chargers resting Justin Herbert, the Patriots' path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC is going to be nearly impossible, as they'd need the Broncos to lose as massive favorites to a Herbert-less Chargers. That could lead Mike Vrabel to be convinced to rest his starters for at least a portion of their game against the Dolphins.

Even if they don't rest starters, I still like Miami getting 11 points in this spot. The Dolphins' season didn't go as planned, but they don't belong to the group of truly bad teams this season. They're 21st in both net yards per play and total DVOA, meaning they certainly have the capability to keep the score within single digits.

Let's also not forget the Patriots have some defensive issues, ranking just 25th in defensive DVOA. There's not enough there to convince me to lay 11 points on the Patriots.

Pick: Dolphins +10.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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