Dream vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet WNBA Semifinals Game 3

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty have their backs against the wall in Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals on Friday night.

New York came up short in overtime in Game 2 on Wednesday, putting in a situation where it needs to win three games in a row (two at least will be at home) to reach the WNBA Finals.

Meanwhile, the Dream are the favorite to win the Finals this season and are a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the postseason. Atlanta has also won four games in a row against the Liberty dating back to the last week of the regular season.

Oddsmakers have set New York as a favorite in this matchup, and it went 14-8 at home in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs so far) while covering in 10 of 19 games as a favorite.

This is still a tough matchup, as the Dream had the best net rating on the road (plus-8.7) in the WNBA during the regular season. Can Angel Reese and Co. close this series out on Friday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 3 of the semifinals.

Dream vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Dream +3.5 (-112)
Liberty -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Dream: +136
Liberty: -162

Total

172.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Dream vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Friday, Oct. 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Series: Atlanta leads 2-0

Dream vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Dream Injury Report

Brionna Jones -- out
Allisha Gray -- questionable

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out

Dream vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Dream Best WNBA Prop Bet

Angel Reese UNDER 10.5 Rebounds (+103)

Angel Reese has played five games against the Liberty this season (including playoffs) and she has finished with less than 11 rebounds in all of them, grabbing 10 boards just one time.

In the postseason, Reese has seven rebounds in both her games against New York and is averaging just 8.3 rebounds per game across four games.

The Liberty finished the regular season No. 3 in the WNBA in both rebound percentage and opponent rebounds per game, and they have a huge frontcourt with Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

Reese has been great in this series – she’s averaging 20.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game – but this line is still a little too high for my liking in Game 3.

Dream vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying Atlanta to at least keep this game close:

The Dream have been a top-five team in offensive, defensive and net rating almost all season long, and I think I’ve been too low on them in this playoff series.

The Liberty shocked the entire WNBA by upsetting the Minnesota Lynx in Round 1, and they nearly pulled off an upset win in overtime in Game 2. However, New York has now lost four straight games against the Dream dating back to the regular season.

The Liberty were just 10-9 against the spread when favored at home in the regular season, and I think a full possession is pretty valuable since the first two games between these teams were decided by 10 and three points.

It’s also worth noting that no team in the WNBA had a better net rating on the road than the Dream (plus-8.7), and they went 15-7 in those games. I’m betting on them at least keeping this game close with New York’s season on the line.

Pick: Dream +3.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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