Duke vs. LSU Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

A highly anticipated No. 3 vs. No. 2 matchup is set to take place in the Sweet 16 of the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament, as the Duke Blue Devils take on the LSU Tigers.

LSU is the only No. 2 seed with shorter than +10000 odds to win the NCAA Tournament, sitting at +2000 (fifth in the odds) heading into this matchup. The Tigers are also favored on Friday night after they handled Duke in a regular season on Dec. 4, winning 93-77.

The Blue Devils cruised through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, beating Charleston by 17 and Baylor by 23, riding their elite defense. Duke ranks fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency heading into this Sweet 16 matchup.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are the No. 5 team in Bart Torvik’s latest rankings and have two wins by 50-plus points in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Can they cover against one of the best teams in the country?

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.

Duke vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Duke +8.5 (-110)
LSU -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Duke: +300
LSU: -400

Total

146.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Duke vs. LSU How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 27
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Duke record: 26-8
LSU record: 29-5

Duke vs. LSU Key Player to Watch

Toby Fournier, Forward, Duke

If the Blue Devils are going to pull off an upset in this game, they’ll need a strong showing from sophomore Toby Fournier.

This season, Fournier is averaging 17.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game while shooting 53.1 percent from the field and 34.6 percent from 3. She was limited to just 22 minutes and 14 points in Duke’s Dec. 4 meeting with LSU, so it’s possible she could flip this game if she plays more (Fournier had four fouls in that game).

In the 2026 NCAA Tournament, Fournier scored 24 points against Charleston in the first round and 15 in the second round in a 23-point win over Baylor.

Duke vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

LSU hung 93 points on the Blue Devils’ No. 4 defense earlier this season, and it already has wins by 58 and 54 points in the NCAA Tournament. That has pushed the Tigers to No. 3 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, behind only UCLA and UConn.

Kim Mulkey’s club dominates down low this season, ranking No. 1 in offensive rebound rate and inside the top six in 2-point percentage on offense and opponent 2-point percentage on defense.

That’s a problem for a Duke team that is just 65th in the country in 3-point percentage and 263rd in 3-point rate. Duke would much rather play low-scoring games, but LSU (eighth in adjusted tempo) is going to get out and run from the jump.

The Tigers won by 16 points in the regular-season meeting between these teams, and LSU has an impressive profile with wins over Duke, Texas, Oklahoma (twice) and Ole Miss while suffering two single-digit losses to South Carolina.

I think LSU’s offense is too potent for the Blue Devils, making the Tigers the bet on Friday night.

Pick: LSU -8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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