Fire vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Monday, May 25

Sabrina Ionescu returned to action for the New York Liberty on Sunday, but it wasn’t enough to beat the Dallas Wings as New York struggled from the field, suffering its third loss of the campaign.

At 3-3, the Liberty are just ninth in the WNBA standings right now, but they are heavily favored at home on Monday against the Portland Fire.

Portland is also 3-3 in the 2026 season, and it split two games in Portland against New York earlier this month. Sarah Ashlee Barker hit a game-winning shot in the first meeting, but the Liberty responded with 100 points and an 18-point win in the rematch.

So, who has the edge in New York?

The Liberty are playing a back-to-back, and they have yet to release an injury report for this game. Since Ionescu and Satou Sabally were banged up to open the season, it wouldn’t be shocking if one or both players sat out this matchup after playing heavy minutes in Sunday’s loss.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Monday’s interconference clash.

Fire vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Fire +12.5 (-118)
Liberty -12.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Fire: +440
Liberty: -600

Total

175.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Fire vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 25
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): Peacock/NBCSN
Fire record: 3-3
Liberty record: 3-3

Fire vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Fire Injury Report

None to report

Liberty Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Fire vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Fire Best WNBA Prop Bet

Bridget Carleton 3+ 3-Pointers Made (+141)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Carleton could have a big game against New York:

Portland wing Bridget Carleton is one of the best shooters in the WNBA, and she already has some big games from beyond the arc in the 2026 season.

Carleton was 5-of-11 from 3 in her first meeting with the Liberty in 2026, and she went 4-for-8 from 3 in her last game against the Toronto Tempo. Overall, the Fire star has made at least three shots from deep in three of six games while shooting 40.0 percent.

A career 39.2 percent 3-point shooter, Carleton is taking a career-high 7.5 3-pointers per game in the 2026 season. That puts her in a great spot to clear this number against a New York team that ranks 14th out of 15 teams in opponent 3s made per game and seventh in opponent 3-point percentage.

Arike Ogunbowale, Azzi Fudd and Paige Bueckers torched the Liberty from deep on Sunday, and I think that bodes well for Carleton, who is 7-for-17 from 3 in two games against New York this season.

Fire vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

In the first two meetings between these teams, they combined for 194 and 182 points, clearing this total with relative ease.

Now that the Liberty are getting healthier, they should be even more of a threat to go OVER this number against one of the worst defenses in the W.

Portland is allowing 91.0 points per game – the second-most in the league – and it is just 14th in defensive rating. The Liberty (ninth in defensive rating) aren’t much better on that end, but they do have the No. 3 offense in the W.

The OVER is 4-2 in the games for both of these teams this season, and I think this total is way too big of an adjustment after how both of these offenses fared in their meetings in Portland.

I expect a bit of a bounce-back showing from the Liberty after they struggled against Dallas, and I wouldn't be shocked if both of these teams finish near 90 points on Monday night.

Pick: OVER 175.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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