Florida State vs. Miami Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes look to continue their undefeated season in Week 7, as they’ll play an in-state rival in the Florida State Seminoles.

Florida State is off to a 3-3 start, losing all three of its games against quality opponents (Alabama, SMU and Louisville) this season.

The Seminoles were outscored 44-6 after a 14-0 start in Week 6 against the Cardinals, and now they’re three-touchdown underdogs on the road against Darian Mensah and the Hurricanes.

Miami has a real chance to run the table in the ACC, and the only game that could be a potential loss on the team’s schedule is against No. 2 Notre Dame. If Miami wins that game, it’s almost a lock to make the College Football Playoff.

The Hurricanes have won every game this season by double digits, including a 41-13 victory over Clemson their last time out.

Can Mario Cristobal’s club take care of business in Week 7?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this ACC showdown.

Florida State vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Florida State +21 (-108)
Miami -21 (-112)

Moneyline

Florida State: +950
Miami: -1650

Total

55.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Florida State vs. Miami How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN, Disney+
Florida State record: 3-3
Miami record: 5-0

Florida State vs. Miami Key Player to Watch

Darian Mensah, Quarterback, Miami

A Heisman candidate this season, Mensah has torched all five of the Hurricanes’ opponents in the 2026 season.

He’s completed 84.2 percent of his passes for 1,438 yards, 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions while adding 12 carries for 79 yards and two scores on the ground. Mensah has completed an insane 88.1 percent of his passes at home, and he should have a field day against the Florida State defense.

The Seminoles are just 104th in the country in EPA/Pass and rank outside the top-100 in defensive success rate. That sets up extremely well for Mensah and the Miami offense, which has scored over 40 points in four of five games.

Florida State vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

Florida State has struggled against quality competition this season, allowing 50 points to Alabama, 44 points to Louisville and 27 points in SMU in the team’s three losses.

The Seminoles are just 116th in the country in adjusted EPA/Play on defense and 109th in defensive success rate.

That simply won’t cut it against a Miami team that is No. 2 in both offensive success rate and adjusted EPA/Play this season. Mensah has been arguably the best quarterback in the country, and the Hurricanes are the No. 7 team in the land in third/fourth down success rate.

On defense, Miami is No. 1 in EPA/Rush, which could take away the Seminoles’ greatest strength. Florida State is eighth in EPA/Rush (71st in EPA/Pass) this season, and it struggled after a fast start against Louisville, failing to score in the second and third quarters.

Miami has beaten four teams by more than 21 points, with the only “close” game on the Hurricanes’ schedule so far coming against a now-ranked Wake Forest team.

I’ll lay the points on Saturday, as I don’t expect Florida State’s offense to keep up with one of the best attacks in the country.

Pick: Miami -21 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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