Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 11

Reed Wallach | Feb 11, 2025

Feb 1, 2025; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) brings the ball up court against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images / Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Florida scored one of the best wins of the season, winning handidly against Auburn on the road. 

The Gators remain on the road on Tuesday night as the team faces Mississippi State, who is off a thrilling win on the road as well on Saturday, beating Georgia in the final seconds. Can the Bulldogs, who have lost three of the last five, including two to the likes of Auburn and Tenenssee, find their footing at home and score a signature win? 

Here’s our betting preview for Tuesday’s tilt. 

Florida vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Florida: +1.5 (-120)
• Mississippi State: -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Florida: -108
• Mississippi State: -111

Total: 152.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, February 11th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Florida Record: 20-3
• Mississippi State Record: 17-6

Florida vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch

Florida

Walter Clayton: Clayton had one of the best games of the season at Auburn, scoring 19 points to go with six rebounds and nine assists in the 90-81 win. Clayton is a devastating three-point shooter, but his growth as a passer has unlocked the Gators' offense. 

Mississippi State

KeShawn Murphy: The big man continues to play more and more for the Bulldogs, thriving with the added reps. He did a good job containing Asa Newell on Saturday, as well as scoring in double figures for the sixth time in seven games. He is an elite finisher around the rim and a strong rim protector as the Bulldogs seek consistency on both sides of the floor. 

Florida vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Florida had been struggling from beyond the arc before scorching the nets against Auburn, shooting 13-of-33 from beyond the arc. The team will hope the return of Alijah Martin from a one-game absence can keep the team’s three-point shooting in check against Mississippi State’s compact defense. 

The Bulldogs allow a high rate of three-point attempts (69th highest in the country), but are now outside the top 300 in three-point percentage allowed. Against a Florida team that can get hot from the perimeter at a nearly top-100 rate, this can be a tough schematic matchup for the Bulldogs. 

Meanwhile, look for Florida’s ball handlers, paced by Clayton, to keep a lid on Mississippi State’s aggressive defense that forces turnovers when teams hit the paint, top 60 in the country. 

On the other end of the floor, the Bulldogs' offense has floundered in SEC play as the team is lacking shot-making around the high usage Josh Hubbard. With Martin likely back for this one, the Gators' elite defense should be up to the task of keeping a lid on the Bulldogs' offense. 

Mississippi State has played 10 Quad 1 games this season, going 5-5, but the team’s defense falls off a cliff in those matchups. In SEC play, the team is 1-5 against KenPom top 25 teams while allowing an average of 84.6 points per game. I can’t trust this team to keep Florida down and win this one. 

I’ll take the discount with the Gators. 

PICK: Florida ML (-108, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.