Florida vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

Both the Florida Gators and Texas Longhorns lost in Week 6 of the college football season, dropping them in the AP Poll.

Jon Sumrall’s Gators are now out of the top-25 and are a bit of a long shot to make the College Football Playoff, as they’ve been blown out by Missouri and South Carolina in back-to-back SEC games.

Now, the Gators are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against the former No. 1 team in the country. That’s right, Texas is now back to No. 7 after a shocking loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in Week 6.

Arch Manning (two picks) turned in yet another shaky performance, and the Longhorns’ are no longer in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot in the 2026 season. Texas has a tough schedule with Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU the next five games, and a couple losses could doom this team’s chances of making the College Football Playoff.

Texas has a high ceiling – it beat Ohio State earlier this season – and it needs to take care of business against a reeling Florida team that may have been overrated for beating Ole Miss back in Week 4.

Here’s a breakdown of this SEC showdown, complete with the latest odds from the best college football betting sites.

Florida vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Florida +10.5 (-108)
Texas -10.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Florida: +330
Texas: -425

Total

52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Florida vs. Texas How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Florida record: 4-2
Texas record: 4-1

Florida vs. Texas Key Player to Watch

Arch Manning, Quarterback, Texas

Arch Manning entered the 2026 season a leading candidate to win the Heisman and a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Yet, his play has been underwhelming.

The Texas quarterback has completed 63.0 percent of his passes for 1,122 yards, 10 scores and five picks, including two picks that doomed the Longhorns against the Sooners in Week 6. He’s also carried the ball 39 times for 102 yards.

Manning has not elevated Texas’ offense to a new level (89th in EPA/Play), but he does have a favorable matchup against a Florida defense that is outside the top-100 in EPA/Play this season. Plus, the Gators are reeling off of two blowout losses to SEC teams.

If Manning wants to keep Texas as a threat to win the conference, he’ll need a bounce-back showing in Week 7.

Florida vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

I don’t want to lay the points with the Longhorns in this spot, even though Florida has lost back-to-back games by double digits.

Instead, I’m going to take the OVER and bet on a stronger showing from the Texas offense.

Florida’s defense is way outside the top-100 in EPA/Play, third and fourth down success rate (135th) and clocks in at No. 123 overall in success rate. Texas only has one game this season where it combined for over 52.5 points, but the Gators have done so in every single game.

Texas should be able to eclipse the 30-point mark at home, and the Gators are a top-10 team in EPA/Pass and a top-50 team in EPA/Rush on offense this season. So, I don’t expect them to get completely shut out, especially since Texas allowed 27 points to a struggling Oklahoma team in Week 6.

I am putting a lot of faith in Manning and this offense, but the Gators have allowed 39, 28, 45 and 38 points in their four conference matchups in 2026.

Pick: OVER 52.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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