Florida vs. Texas Predictions, Best Bets and Picks for College Football Week 7

The Texas Longhorns suffered a baffling loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 6, causing them to fall to No. 7 in the latest AP Poll. They'll look to bounce back in Week 7 when they host the 4-2 Florida Gators.

The Gators may be without their starting quarterback, Aaron Philo, who's nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in last week's loss to South Carolina. As a result, the Longhorns are set as double-digit favorites in this game.

Let's dive into my three best bets for this fascinating SEC duel.

Florida vs. Texas Best Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas -11.5 (-105) vs. Florida
Texas vs. Florida OVER 51.5 (-105)
Arch Manning OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Texas -11.5 (-105) vs. Florida

The Texas offense has struggled at times this season, but we do have to be a bit forgiving of their results, as they have had to face some of the best defenses in the country, including Ohio State, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. If you adjusted their EPA numbers for level of competition, they improve from 90th in the country to 52nd.

Now, they get to face one of the easiest defenses they'll face this season. The Florida defense is atrocious, ranking 127th in opponent EPA per play and 124th in defensive success rate. Their offense would typically be good enough to potentially keep pace, but with Philo dealing with a shoulder injury, they won't have the firepower to keep up with the Longhorns.

Texas vs. Florida OVER 51.5 (-105)

I think the Longhorns are going to be able to score the bulk of the points needed for the total to go OVER 51.5, but the Gators should be able to contribute, even if Philo can't play. Their backup, Tramell Jones Jr., has looked solid in relief of Philo this season, completing 23-of-29 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 25 yards on the ground. Don't completely dismiss the Florida offense with Philo sidelined.

If you're looking to bet the total in this game, take the OVER.

Arch Manning OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-114)

It's time for Arch Manning to have a true breakout performance. He has had a tough start to the season against elite college football defenses, but he should be able to rack up yards at will against a Gators' secondary that ranks 115th in the country in opponent EPA per pass. Let's buy low on the Texas quarterback.

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